Cowboys playoff odds: Can Dallas save its season after an underwhelming 3-4 start?

The Dallas Cowboys are not where they wanted to be after eight weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season. 

After three consecutive seasons of winning 12 games, they'd have to be almost perfect the rest of the way to match such a mark, as they sit at 3-4 and with quite a tough schedule to close out the year. 

The Cowboys entered the season favored to make the playoffs but their odds of making it heading into Week 9 at a surprising low. Let's dive into multiple projections from websites that run simulations based on advanced stats. 

Cowboys' playoff probabilities per multiple projections

Below are the Cowboys' probabilities of making the postseason, per multiple sites that run simulations using their own metrics. As you can see, they're all pretty much on the same range. ESPN uses its signature Football Power Index, FTN uses one of the top efficiency metrics in the game, DVOA, and The Athletic uses various metrics such as EPA/play and success rates to determine expected wins.

• FTN's DVOA: 14.7%
• The Athletic: 17%
• ESPN: 12%
• True implied probability from betting odds: 23.8%

As you can see, none of the metrics are bullish on Dallas. As usual, it appears the betting markets are overrating the Cowboys slightly. But think about this: Per The Athletic's numbers leading up to Week 1, the Cowboys had a 75% chance of making the postseason, sixth-highest in the NFL. That's a huge decline in half a season. 

Simply put, the Cowboys haven't played great on either side of the ball and with a schedule that ranks Top 10 in difficulty according to DVOA, there's not a lot of optimism going around that they'll be able to right the ship. If they do so, it'll likely have to be on the shoulders of multiple defenders returning from injury including Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland, and current players getting better, starting by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, whose chemistry has been off the entire year. 

However, it's usually wishful thinking to expect too many issues to be fixed in November, specially with a front office unlikely to make any big moves leading up to the trade deadline.