Dan Campbell Effect Has Chiefs Burning Midnight Oil

“So, we know it's coming,” Toub added. “We knew it was coming two years ago, but they were backed up on the 17-yard line. You don't think it's coming then. I mean, that's the thing. He'll call it when you least expect it.

“So now you got to expect it all the time. So, I mean, we'll be ready for it. It doesn't mean you’re gonna stop it. You gotta be prepared for it. And they'll come with some kind of crazy thing, whatever. But we're ready.”

The genesis of that reputation

Two years ago in Detroit’s 21-20 upset at Kansas City, Campbell called that fake punt in the first quarter of a scoreless season-opener, on fourth-and-2, and as Toub mentioned from his own 17-yard line. Jalen Reeves-Maybin took a direct snap and got 3 yards up the middle before Bryan Cook could get him on the ground.

The first-down run extended a 14-play drive that gave Detroit the NFL’s first touchdown of 2023. But Campbell doesn’t need his punt team on the field to convert fourth downs. Whether stuck in the shadow of his goal line or stuck in the shadow of a parking-lot lightpost, no one will be surprised to see Jared Goff remain in huddle when the Lions face fourth down.

Especially Steve Spagnuolo. Campbell’s reputation means the defensive coordinator’s game-theory calls this week will change, but not as much as one would think.

“Yeah, third down can be really second down,” Spagnuolo said Thursday. “It's funny, it just feels like every week, we talk about, ‘This team is going to go for it on fourth down.’ I just think that's where the league's going to.

“I mean, fourth-and-2 at our 40-yard line to the offense is, ‘Let's go get it.’ We do it. Other teams do it. So, this week is not any different. I mean, we know Dan's real aggressive, and we're gonna be planning for it. We did when we played him here two years ago, and we're practicing those plays that we think we might see.”

Riverboat Andy Reid

Indeed, the Chiefs do it, often. Or at least they did up until last week. Andy Reid had been among league leaders is fourth-down attempts until having none in last week’s loss. He’s still 10-for-11 this season, a 90.0 percent success rate that ranks third in the NFL. With a minimum of five attempts, it’s actually No. 1 in the league.

Campbell and the Lions are 7-for-9 (.777) this season on fourth downs.

Reid wasn’t as aggressive last week on a pair of second-half fourth downs. First, on the Chiefs’ initial drive out of the locker room, he sent punter Matt Araiza out on fourth-and-2 from the Chiefs’ 41-yard line. Nohl Williams made a textbook tackle on dangerous Parker Washington to pin the Jaguars at their own 13.

The next decision also paid off for Reid, who eschewed a 62-yard Harrison Butker field-goal attempt on fourth-and-10. Down 21-14 early in the fourth quarter, Araiza came through again, pinning Jacksonville at its own 12. Two plays later, Trent McDuffie intercepted Trevor Lawrence.

“Yeah, I decided it,” Reid said Wednesday. “It's subjective, so I thought right thing to do at that time. We have been aggressive, but I thought field position would end up being a big thing in that game. So, I chose to do that.”

And when analytics tell him to make a decision, the NFL’s most successful active head coach will make his own calls, thank you very much.

“Yeah, I just make a judgment. It doesn't matter, necessarily, who we're playing that way. I just try to make a judgment on, from what I go into the game thinking a certain thing, and then do it. And then, if there's one that I haven't thought about, I still do it.”