Even though we ran a piece on potential trade destinations for Lawrence this month, there was some skepticism about how likely a deal actually was. Lawrence requested a trade amidst a contract squabble with New York, but over the last few years, that’s actually been a data point in favor of a deal getting worked out. With two years remaining on a major deal he signed in 2022, Lawrence’s leverage wasn’t great. The Giants didn’t have to trade him unless they were blown away by an offer, which it’s safe to say is what happened. 

The Bengals certainly weren’t on my radar to be that team. It’s incredibly rare for teams to trade top-ten picks for players, and Cincinnati historically just doesn’t do trades, period. Apart from periodic exceptions with extenuating circumstances (like Carson Palmer demanding to be traded and forcing the team’s hand by retiring, the Bengals don’t make big trades — not with sending players away and certainly not bringing them in. But faced with the prospect of history repeating itself with QB Joe Burrow, the Bengals took a big, out-of-character swing to try to fix a horrible defense. 

A trade still has to be finalized with a physical, and this year has hammered home that that’s not necessarily a formality. Assuming it goes through, however, how did each side do? 

Giants grade: A

As Lawrence’s situation unspooled over the last two weeks, the Giants walked the line of not looking desperate to unload the star defensive tackle while making it clear he would be available for the right offer. New York would trade Lawrence on its terms, no one else’s. The comparison that was floated was the Cowboys’ deal for Jets DT Quinnen Williams last season, sending a second and a future first. That was viewed as an overpay at the time and most thought the Giants would find themselves hard-pressed to get anything more than a second-round pick. 

Not so, as it turns out. As Adam Schefter tweeted last night, the last time a top-ten pick was part of a trade for a player was in 2005 when the Raiders dealt for WR Randy Moss. That deal had a few other moving parts, whereas this trade is a clean swap of the No. 10 pick for Lawrence. It’s a massive, nearly unprecedented return. While the Giants now have a gaping hole at defensive tackle, this is a trade they had to say yes to. 

This pick gives the Giants two selections inside the top 10 to add two hopeful cornerstones to new HC John Harbaugh’s program. Even in a weak class, there’s a clear top shelf of high-end talent, and this trade lets the Giants double-dip in that pool. Those players will be on cheap deals for the next four years, joining a budding young core of talent already in place. 

While it’s not a strong group of defensive tackles overall, there is a sweet spot for the position right at New York’s second-round selection at the top of Day 2. Adding a rookie while signing a couple of veterans who have been in for visits like D.J. Reader or Shelby Harris wouldn’t replace Lawrence, but it might be enough to keep the room afloat until next offseason. There might be bumps overall, but the Giants will be a young, hungry team on the rise with an established coach who has something to prove. 

Bengals grade: D+

You have to give the Bengals some credit for going so far outside of their comfort zone here. Cincinnati hit the defense hard in free agency but fans of the team left March thinking there was meat left on the bone in terms of potential improvement. The Bengals missed on a couple of high-profile targets as they leaned on traditional ways of doing business, whether it was a potential trade or an insistence on no guaranteed money past Year 1. 

Lawrence fills a major need for the Bengals in the middle of their defense. They were Charmin soft against the run and struggled to generate much of a pass rush after DE Trey Hendrickson, now with the Ravens, went down. Lawrence may have had only half a sack last season, but he was still impacting opposing offenses. PFF tracked him for 34 total pressures, 27th at his position and only two less than 2024 when he had a whopping nine sacks. He ranked 19th among all defensive tackles in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, which is ludicrous for a 340-pound nose tackle. 

The last good thing I can say about this trade is that this is a weak draft class overall and the caliber of player available to Cincinnati at No. 10 overall isn’t the same as it would be in an average year. It’s even worse if narrowed to positions of need for the Bengals like cornerback, pass rusher or even safety. Part of the calculus for the Bengals here had to have been a growing sense that their board was going to be cleaned out before they went on the clock. 

Having said that…there are so many ways in which this could go horribly wrong for the Bengals. Giving up the No. 10 pick for a 28-year-old nose tackle coming off the worst year of his professional career is a massive gamble. On top of that, they’re going to have to shatter precedent in more ways than one with Lawrence, who is in line for a huge deal as a part of this extension. The Bengals will not only have to pay him near the top of the market for defensive tackles at nearly $30 million a year, but they’ll almost have to break their rule for guarantees to get it done, and they have little leverage to say otherwise. 

The advantage of picks in the top half of the first round isn’t just about access to the cream of the crop. Teams tend to only have 20 to 25 players in any given class with true first-round grades, and this year that number is closer to 15 across all 32 teams. Compounding the advantage of picking higher is the rookie salary scale that allows teams to get high-end performers for a fraction of their true market value. The No. 10 pick this year is projected to make just under $30 million total on a four-year term. Lawrence will be right around that figure per year on his new deal, and around double that in total guarantees. 

That’s why teams are so reluctant to give up draft picks in trades where they also have to sign a player to a new contract; they end up paying a huge markup as opposed to just spending money or the pick. Sometimes the jump in quality is worth it. Often it’s not. 

Lawrence has been doing remarkable things for a nose tackle the last few years, but to balance out the value on the other end of this trade, he either needs to turn back the clock and match that peak production, or the Bengals need to win the Super Bowl. That’s just not a fair ask for any single player, and the odds are tilted against him from the jump. 

What’s harder to put a value on is Burrow’s contentment with the franchise. Does this kind of move buy the Bengals more equity with him as he considers his long-term outlook? Perhaps, but at the end of the day, winning is what Burrow cares about the most, and being with an organization motivated and capable of doing what it takes to reach the pinnacle of the sport. If this Lawrence trade doesn’t result in a lot more wins, especially in January, it can only keep Burrow happy for so long.