Draft history says that Brashard Smith is a long shot to just make the Chiefs roster

The Kansas City Chiefs completed their 2025 NFL draft class with the selection of running back Brashard Smith from SMU. The explosive former wide receiver was predicted by many to go earlier in the draft, but a deep running back class probably led to him falling. While many fans (myself included) are excited to see if Smith can bring some much needed big play ability to KC's backfield, what are the odds that Smith will make it at all in the NFL?

Should the Chiefs be counting on a 7th round running back again?

The overall hit rate of 7th round draft picks is not great. Most estimate the percentage of 7th round picks that become starters in the NFL to be around 6%. However, there is a pretty wideheld belief that running back is one of the positions where you can find guys late in the draft (or even undrafted free agents) that can turn into starters. The Chiefs did just that when they took Isiah Pacheco in the 7th round a few years back.

So what are the odds that the Chiefs can find another reliable contributor at running back in the 7th round with Brashard Smith? To answer that question I went back and looked at a ten year stretch of drafts between 2014-2023. With it being a little too soon to judge the 2024 draft class, this gave me the most recent ten year sample to work with. I then looked at all the running backs drafted in the 7th round during that span. I found 31 running backs taken.

Here are the thirty-one 7th round running backs taken from 2014-2023 listed by year:

2014:

Storm Johnson - Jacksonville Jaguars

Kiero Small - Seattle Seahawks

2015:

Marcus Murphy - New Orleans Saints

Kenny Hilliard - Houston Texans

2016:

Dwayne Washington - Detroit Lions

Daniel Lasco - New Orleans Saints

Zac Brooks - Seattle Seahawks

2017:

Devante Mays - Green Bay Packers

Khalfani Muhammad - Tennessee Titans

Elijah Hood - Dallas Cowboys

Chris Carson - Seattle Seahawks

Matthew Dayes - Cleveland Browns

2018:

David Williams - Denver Broncos

Bo Scarbrough - Dallas Cowboys

Justin Jackson - Los Angeles Chargers

2019:

Mike Weber - Dallas Cowboys

Cullen Gillaspia - Houston Texans

Kerrith Whyte - Chicago Bears

Myles Gaskin - Miami Dolphins

2020:

Eno Benjamin - Arizona Cardinals

Raymond Calais - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2021:

Jake Funk - Los Angeles Rams

Gerrid Doaks - Miami Dolphins

Kylin Hill - Green Bay Packers

Jermar Jefferson - Detroit Lions

2022:

Brittain Brown - Las Vegas Raiders

Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City Chiefs

Zander Horvath - Los Angeles Chargers

2023:

DeWayne McBride - Minnesota Vikings

Lew Nichols - Green Bay Packers

Kenny McIntosh - Seattle Seahawks

That isn't exactly a long list of NFL household names. Again, the hit rate of all 7th round picks is very low, but on first glance it doesn't look like the theory of being able to find a solid running back in the 7th round may hold up. I went through the career numbers of all 31 players listed above and broke them into the following three categories:

Misses: These players never really made any significant impact in the NFL and most weren't with the team that drafted them more than a year or two (if they ever made the team at all).

Contributors: These players have carved out a multi-year NFL career either as a special teams player or as a backup running back even though they never became a full time starting running back.

NFL Starters: These players proved worthy of starting multiple games across multiple seasons in the NFL.

There were a few players that were on the fence between misses and contributors, but for the most part this was pretty cut and dry. Here's how I categorized the 31 running backs drafted in the 7th round from 2014-2023.

26 Misses (83.9%)

Storm Johnson

Kiero Small

Marcus Murphy

Kenny Hilliard

Daniel Lasco

Zac Brooks

Devante Mays

Khalfani Muhammad

Elijah Hood

Matthew Dayes

David Williams

Bo Scarbrough

Mike Weber

Cullen Gillaspia

Kerrith Whyte

Eno Benjamin

Raymond Calais

Jake Funk

Gerrid Doaks

Kylin Hill

Jermar Jefferson

Brittain Brown

Zander Horvath

DeWayne McBride

Lew Nichols

Kenny McIntosh

3 Contributors (9.7%)

Dwayne Washington

Justin Jackson

Myles Gaskin

2 Starters (6.5%)

Chris Carson

Isiah Pacheco

So it turns out that the odds of hitting on a starting running back in the 7th round is right at the average for all positions at just 6%. Even more sobering for Brashard Smith's chances may be the fact that of the 31 running backs drafted in the 7th round over this 10 year period, Myles Gaskin is the 3rd best player of the group. It turns out that Isiah Pacheco isn't the example of how you can just wait and find a starting running back in the 7th round, he's the exception.

I'm pulling for Brashard Smith and will be keeping an eye on him in training camp and the preseason. I'm hopeful that his speed, pass catching upside, and potential as a return man will earn him a spot on the roster. However, KC fans need to keep in mind that based on recent draft history, if Smith ends up as a solid return man that only occasionally touches the ball on offense, that would still make him one of the more successful 7th round running backs drafted in the last decade. Anything more than that and the Chiefs will have beaten the odds, just like they did with Isiah Pacheco.

If you enjoyed this piece and haven't seen any of the others I've done on KC's draft class and the recent history of players at those positions taken at the same point in the draft, you can check them out at the links below.

Josh Simmons and Late 1st Round Offensive Tackles

Omarr Norman-Lott and Late 2nd Round Defensive Tackles

Ashton Gillotte and Early 3rd Round Defensive Ends

Nohl Williams and Late 3rd Round Cornerbacks

Jalen Royals and 4th Round Wide Receivers

Jeffrey Bassa and 5th Round Linebackers