Sep 5, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner (27) narrowly misses intercepting a pass intended for Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Drama at Arrowhead: Historical Reason Chiefs Want to Avoid 1–3

Originally posted on Kansas City Chiefs on SI
By Zak Gilbert | Last updated Sep 28, 2025 6:00 AM ET

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The NFL and CBS certainly had higher aspirations when they scheduled Baltimore at Kansas City in Week 4, but each team entering 1-2 shouldn’t affect the drama.

Five of the previous six games between the Chiefs and Ravens have been decided by no more than seven points. Last season, Kansas City won by a cleat in the traditional Thursday night NFL season-opener. Baltimore tight end Isiah Likely came down an inch out of bounds with what would’ve been a game-tying touchdown on the last play of the game.

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AFC elimination game?

And while it might me a little dramatic to call Sunday’s battle at Arrowhead Stadium (3:25 p.m. CT, CBS/KCTV Channel 5, 96.5 The Fan) an AFC elimination game, history says the loser will face steep odds to climb back into the playoff picture.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the loser of Sunday’s game will own a 23.4-percent better chance to reach the postseason. Since the NFL expanded the playoff field to 12 teams in 1990, here are the historical numbers.

Of 343 teams to start 2-2, 128 made the playoffs (37.3 percent)

Of 252 teams to start 1-3, only 35 made the playoffs (13.9 percent)

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One of those 35 clubs was the 2015 Chiefs. That year, Kansas City actually opened 1-5 but remarkably rebounded to win 10 straight to clinch a playoff berth. Andy Reid, Alex Smith and a young tight end named Travis Kelce led the team to a first-round playoff win, too.

Proud franchises

But no one wants that level of stress. That’s why Sunday is monstrous for both teams. And quarterback Patrick Mahomes sees it as a battle of two proud franchises, especially a Ravens club that lost to the Lions on Monday Night Football.

“They're a prideful group,” Patrick Mahomes said Wednesday. “I don't think they're going to be very happy with the film, and they're going to come out with the mentality of stopping the run. So, it'll be a great test for us.”

Stopping the run will be a great test for the Chiefs’ defense, too. Derrick Henry fell just 79 yards of a 2,000 in his first season with Baltimore. One slight advantage the Chiefs have, according to All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, is a victory last week.

“We got a win this last weekend, so life is a little better,” Jones said Thursday. “It's a momentum shifter. We're very familiar with winning here, and to have that win after two losses, feels good. Feels good.”

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What won’t feel good is for the Chiefs (1-2) to potentially wake up on Monday morning and see themselves three full games behind the Chargers (3-0) in the AFC West. Los Angeles is in the same locker room the Chiefs occupied Sunday night, facing Giants rookie Jaxson Dart in the rookie’s first NFL starting assignment.

This article first appeared on Kansas City Chiefs on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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