• Why He’s Rising: Wilson made the superstar leap, becoming one of the league’s most dominant route runners and red‑zone threats.
• Key Stat or Trend: Ranked top‑five in target share and top‑three in end‑zone targets.
• Fantasy Impact: Moving firmly into Round 1–2 territory.
• Ceiling/Floor Notes: Ceiling: Overall WR1. Floor: High‑end WR1 due to elite volume.

3. Chris Olave – Saints

• Why He’s Rising: Chris Olave finally got the quarterback stability and offensive structure he’d been missing, and it unlocked the version of him fantasy managers have been waiting for. His route precision and intermediate dominance translated into true alpha‑level usage down the stretch.
• Key Stat or Trend: Closed the season with a 29% target share and six straight games of 80+ receiving yards.
• Fantasy Impact: Jumping from a Round 3–4 “safe WR2” pick into the Round 1–2 fringe as drafters buy into a full breakout.
• Ceiling/Floor Notes: Ceiling: Top‑5 WR if the offense sustains volume and he maintains elite target earning. Floor: High‑end WR2 with one of the steadiest yardage floors in the league.

Fallers

1. Justin Jefferson – Vikings

Why He’s Falling: Jefferson struggled with inconsistent quarterback play and a declining offensive environment, leading to his most volatile season yet.

Key Stat or Trend: Dropped from 20.2 PPG to 13.8 PPG in 2025.

Fantasy Impact: Sliding from a top‑3 pick to late Round 2–early Round 3.

Risk Factors: QB uncertainty, declining efficiency, and increased target competition.

2. D.K. Metcalf – Steelers

Why He’s Falling: DK Metcalf’s weekly volatility became harder to stomach as the offense shifted toward a more spread‑out target distribution. His downfield role stayed intact, but the consistent alpha usage fantasy managers hoped for never materialized, making his production far more matchup‑dependent. Also, the Aaron Rodgers part of it seems not likely to continue in 2026.

Key Stat or Trend: Saw just a 21% target share over his final nine games, his lowest stretch since his rookie season.

Fantasy Impact: Dropping from a Round 2–3 fringe WR1/WR2 pick into the Round 4–5 range as drafters question volume stability and touchdown reliance.

Ceiling/Floor Notes: Ceiling: High‑end WR2 if the offense consolidates targets and red‑zone looks swing back his way. Floor: Touchdown‑dependent WR3 who can disappear in lower‑volume game scripts.

3. DeVonta Smith – Eagles

Why He’s Falling: DeVonta Smith saw his target share dip as the offense shifted toward a more run‑heavy identity, and inconsistent weekly usage made him far more volatile than fantasy managers expected. His red‑zone role also shrank, limiting touchdown stability. Similar sentiment can be said about A.J. Brown, although he had late season resurgence, which was opposite to Smith.

Key Stat or Trend: Managed just a 19% target share over his final seven games, down from 26% the year prior.

Fantasy Impact: Sliding from a Round 2–3 locked‑in WR2 to a Round 4–5 pick as drafters worry about volume and week‑to‑week predictability.

Ceiling/Floor Notes: Ceiling: Low‑end WR1 if the offense rebounds and his target share normalizes. Floor: Boom‑bust WR3 who relies on efficiency and big plays rather than steady volume.