ESPN Confirms Falcons Are Biggest Boom or Bust 2025 NFL Team

The Atlanta Falcons are hopeful the 2025 campaign is finally the one that ends the team's playoff drought and seven-year losing season streak.

ESPN has little doubt that the Falcons have the talent to achieve those goals. However, if the season goes sideways, The World Wide Leader doesn't rule out the possibility of the Falcons experiencing a campaign even worse than the past handful of years.

On Thursday, ESPN set Atlanta's ceiling for the 2025 regular season at 11-6. In the same article, ESPN had the team's floor at 5-12.

It's the NFL. Most teams have a very wide spread of what their record could be for an individual season.

However, a six-game variance (11 wins for the ceiling versus five wins for the floor) was tied for the largest difference any team received for its ceiling and floor on the ESPN list. The only other team in the NFC with that wide of a gap between its ceiling and floor was the Dallas Cowboys.

Falcons One of the Biggest Boom-or-Bust 2025 NFL Teams

The AFC also had just two teams with a six-game difference between their ceiling and floor on the ESPN list. Those squads were the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The other 28 teams in the league all had a five-win gap. That makes Atlanta one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the league entering 2025.

If things go right with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. becoming a star and the defense playing a lot better behind early-round rookies and cheap but quality veteran additions, the Falcons could win the NFC South. Based on their schedule, I would say more than 11 wins is even a possibility.

But if the defense doesn't fix its pass rush, all bets are off. That will especially be true if Penix struggles with consistency as Kirk Cousins did last season.

QB Michael Penix Jr., TE Kyle Pitts Biggest Keys for Falcons' 2025 Season?

Clearly, Penix will be the biggest determination of how the Falcons' 2025 season goes. But on Thursday, ESPN's Marc Raimondi called tight end Kyle Pitts the team's biggest x-factor.

"A great deal of the Falcons' fortunes this season rest on the left arm of second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but a great deal of Penix's fortunes rest with Pitts," Raimondi wrote. "If Pitts can even approach his Pro Bowl rookie output of 1,026 yards on 68 catches in 2021, Penix will have another elite player joining wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson.

"Pitts, 24, has not eclipsed the 700-yard mark in any of his previous three seasons, but he says he's healthier now and has already formed a connection on and off the field with Penix."

Pitts registered 47 catches for 602 yards with four touchdowns last season. He hasn't been a star for the Falcons offense since his rookie season when he made the Pro Bowl with 68 receptions and 1,026 receiving yards.

Pitts, though, doesn't have to compete to be Atlanta's leading receiver to help the Falcons reach their ceiling. Receiver Drake London has grown into the team's clear top target and running back Bijan Robinson is a quality pass-catcher out of the backfield.

The Falcons will need Pitts to step up, though, if No. 2 receiver Darnell Mooney misses the beginning of the regular season. While the Falcons remain optimistic that he will be ready in September, Mooney suffered a shoulder injury early in training camp and hasn't returned to practice.