ESPN Predicts 2025 Broncos Will Miss the Playoffs

In their first one-score game, the Broncos were down 13-19 going into the fourth quarter, but the Seattle Seahawks scored quickly in the final frame, making it 26-13. A Broncos' touchdown right before the two-minute warning made it 26-20, which was the final score. 

The Broncos had two drives before that, where they punted after a three-and-out and then turned the ball over after crossing into Seattle territory. So, the late score didn’t impact the outcome, but it gave the Broncos a chance to win the game and resulted in a one-score loss. This makes Barnwell technically correct, but it also means Denver was still in the game. 

The Broncos' next one-score game was against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Broncos were in it until the end, but it was a low-scoring game. The Broncos scored their six points after the Steelers were up 13-0, but they had a final shot to pull out the win. Those scores didn’t change the outcome, but they still mattered. 

In their third one-score game, the Broncos secured their one win with a field goal in the final 10 minutes against the New York Jets. As Barnwell notes, this is Denver's only one-score win of the season. 

The Broncos' first matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers was next, and this was also the first instance of a late score making the game appear closer than it actually was. It was 23-0 for the Chargers until about 10 minutes left in the game, when the Broncos scored three times for 16 points. 

What changed was how the Chargers played the Broncos' offense, as well as how L.A. adapted after losing cornerback Kristian Fulton. This game also saw cornerback Patrick Surtain II leave with a concussion, and the Broncos struggled to overcome his loss. 

In the final three one-score games Denver lost, one was a blocked last-second field goal by the Kansas City Chiefs, an overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, and the second Chargers game, where the Broncos had control until right before halftime. 

Broncos in Position to Win

Barnwell is correct that these late scores didn't technically impact the outcome, but in five of those six losses, it was close, including the overtime loss in Cincinnati, the last-second blocked field goal, and the Chargers game, where Denver led going into the second half. These games weren't a case of 'the score made it look closer than it actually was.' Barnwell diminishes the impact of the Broncos' late-game scores in each loss.

In games that are not as close as the score indicates, you don’t see a team in a position to win it late, as the Broncos were in many of those games last season. No one has a crystal ball, and Barnwell may end up being right about the Broncos missing the playoffs.

However, Barnwell justified his Broncos prediction, in part, based on the one-score-game argument, which didn't withstand scrutiny upon closer inspection, so fans should act accordingly concerning his playoff projection. He also used the Broncos' record against winning teams, Bo Nix's struggles in the drop-back passing game when trailing by multiple scores, defensive variance year-to-year, and a tougher schedule

"The Broncos went 1-7 versus teams with a winning record before their blowout victory at home against the Chiefs' JV squad in Week 18; and after making it to the postseason, they will face a tougher schedule in 2025," Barnwell wrote, summing up his prediction. "They also went 1-6 in games decided by seven or fewer points -- including a loss that should have been a statement win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium -- although most of those narrow games looked closer than they were because of late scores by Denver that didn't materially impact the outcome. If you think Nix takes the next step, the Broncos should be ahead of the Chargers. I'm not as confident, which is why Denver narrowly misses out in my bracket."

Barnwell is a respected analyst for a reason, but in this case, one big aspect of his argument was wrong at worst, and severely flawed at best.

The Takeaway

The Broncos were a very young team last year, and while they exceeded expectations and made the playoffs, they needed the experience of losing those close games to understand what it takes to come out on top in such fiercely contested situations moving forward.

The Broncos need to flip the outcome of those games this year; there's no denying that, but they've grown as a team, and the front office has also taken the necessary steps on the personnel side to upgrade the roster. Now it's up to the Broncos to figure out how to become a bona fide closer.

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With Sean Payton as the head coach and the fact that last year's rookies gained valuable experience, there should be confidence within Broncos Country about the team's ability to flip those close one-score games, even if it does appear to be a tougher schedule.