ESPN simulation predicts 49ers' 2025 finish and playoff fate

ESPN analyst Seth Walder set out to project how the final three weeks of the 2025 NFL season—and the postseason—might unfold, turning to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) for answers. Out of 10,000 simulations, Walder highlighted simulation No. 5,002 in his feature for the sports site.

In that scenario, the San Francisco 49ers narrowly defeat the Indianapolis Colts, 10–6, on Monday night to clinch a playoff berth. From there, however, the finish to the regular season takes a turn for the worse.

The 49ers close the year with back-to-back losses to the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks, making San Francisco the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture.

Below are the projected NFC playoff standings from the simulation, setting up a Wild Card Round matchup between the 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field:

1. Los Angeles Rams (13-4)*
2. Chicago Bears (12-5)*
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)*
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)*
5. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
6. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
7. Green Bay Packers (10-6-1)

* Division winners

Despite opening the postseason on the road, ESPN's simulation has the 49ers upsetting the Eagles, 34–24, in the Wild Card Round. Their playoff run ends the following week, however, with Tampa Bay defeating San Francisco 23–10 in the Divisional Round.

As for Super Bowl LX, the simulation projects the Los Angeles Rams defeating the New England Patriots, 30–24. While the Lombardi Trophy returns to the NFC West, it does so in a way that falls short of 49ers fans' hopes.