ESPN Unanimous in Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

The Atlanta Falcons evened their record at 2-2 in a Week 4 victory at home vs. the Buffalo Bills. After a week off, they have a chance to have a winning record, but to make a statement in front of a national audience against an AFC power.

The Falcons are home underdogs vs. the Bills. The line opened at +4.5 for Atlanta, but some money has been going to the Birds, and it's dropped to +3.5, according to ESPNBet.

ESPN's weekly panel of analysts is unanimous in picking the favored Buffalo Bills, but that might be good news for the Atlanta Falcons. Each of them is 1-3 in picking Falcons' games this year, for a total of 3-9 through four weeks.

ESPN's panel includes reporter Pamela Maldonado, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder.

ESPN's Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

Maldonado's pick: Bills 34, Falcons 31
Moody's pick: Bills 35, Falcons 21
Walder's pick: Bills 30, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.0% (by an average of 4.6 points)

Picking the Bills in Monday's game isn't exactly a slight to the Falcons. The Bills are one of the top teams in the NFL and sit in the top 2 of most NFL Power Rankings. Quarterback Josh Allen is a reigning MVP and will present a much more significant challenge than the last three quarterbacks the Falcons have faced: J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota.

Still, even with the Denver Broncos holding the New York Jets to -10 passing yards on Sunday, the Falcons are still the stingiest passing defense in the NFL by some margin.

At 135 yards per game, they hold roughly a 20 yards per game lead over... the Buffalo Bills.

What the Bills don't do well is stop the run. Buffalo is giving up 145.6 yards per game, 30th in the NFL, while the Falcons have the league's No. 4 rushing attack. The Bills offense has the No. 2 rushing attack at 154.4 yars per game.

With both teams' strengths being the running attack, possessions, and points, could be at a premium as the clock runs nearly continuously. If there are several long, time-consuming drives, the score could be considerably lower than the predicted 50+ points by ESPN's panel.

That said, Walder thinks there could be more explosive plays than usual, helping to shorten drives and increase the score.

"The Falcons will generate multiple 30-plus-yard gains on plays where they use motion at the snap. They use motion at the snap 53% of the time (second in the NFL), and the Bills are allowing 0.23 EPA per play vs. motion at the snap, third most in the NFL this season," Walder wrote on ESPN.

The Buffalo Bills visit the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football in an unusual time slot. It's the first of two games on Monday night and will kick off at 7:15 p.m. on ESPN.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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