Another projection goes in favor of the Falcons Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

ESPN Writer Picks Falcons to Win NFC South

Originally posted on Atlanta Falcons on SI
By Arkesh Ray | Last updated Sep 3, 2025 6:00 PM ET

Bill Barnwell, a journalist for ESPN, predicted the 14 teams he believes will make the playoffs in 2025, and he thinks the Atlanta Falcons will not only make the postseason but win the division for the first time since 2016.

However, Barnwell’s belief in the Falcons is not rooted in the team itself, but in data. He looked at data from the past and saw that due to variance from year to year, of the 14 teams that make the playoffs one year, only eight (7.9) make it back the following year. This means that every year, there should be roughly six new playoff teams.

Due to this, he had to choose the three division leaders from 2024, whom he had the least confidence in heading into 2025, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of these teams.

The Falcons had a 6-3 record and a two-game division lead roughly halfway through the 2024 season. They unfortunately faltered and finished the season 2-6, allowing the Buccaneers to take the South for the fourth straight year.

“It's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Bucs miss out on what would be their sixth consecutive playoff appearance.” Barnwell wrote.

“They're already battling injuries to Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, and new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard doesn't live up to the departed duo of Dave Canales and Liam Coen (both of whom were hits as coordinators). A defense that was league-average last season doesn't make up the difference.”

Barnwell emphasized that he does not feel great about picking against the Buccanners to win the division; however, past history suggests that they are more likely than other stronger division winners to not make the playoffs in 2025.

“If the Falcons actually have fixed their pass rush and landed on the right quarterback, they will have a real shot at topping Tampa Bay -- even if I'm reticent to fully believe in them right now,” Barnwell wrote.

Barnwell trusts the Falcons' ability to be able to dethrone the Buccaneers more than he does other NFC South foes, in the New Orleans Saints or the Carolina Panthers. He’s not a huge fan of the moves they made on the defensive side of the ball (namely, trading a future first for James Pearce Jr), but acknowledges that they had to be made.

In this 2025 playoff model based on data from the past, Barnwell thinks the 2025 Falcons pose the biggest threat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' recent dominance of the NFC South.