ESPN's Analytics Project Illinois Football as Underdog in Surprising Six Games

Yes, the No. 12 team in the country is expected to go .500 – and below .500 in conference outings. Here’s the full list of all six games ESPN has Illinois pegged as the underdog:

Week 2: at Duke Illinois’ chances of winning: 48.6 percent Week 4: at Indiana Illinois’ chances of winning: 34.6 percent Week 5: vs. USC Illinois’ chances of winning: 38.6 percent Week 7: vs. Ohio State (Week Seven) Illinois’ chances of winning: 19.2 percent Week 9: at Washington Illinois’ chances of winning: 39.7 percent Week 13: at Wisconsin Illinois’ chances of winning: 44.4 percent

Although some of those figures were to be expected (notably Ohio State), aa handful come as a surprise – and a couple are outright jaw-dropping. Here are ESPN's three most outlandish projections:

No. 3: at Washington

Playing at Husky Stadium is no stroll through Olympic National Park. After all, Washington has won 20 straight games at home. But the majority of that work was done when the Huskies were competing for a national title with Michael Penix Jr. leading the way. Last year, Washington may have maintained that streak, but it's only truly impressive win was against Michigan. Will the Huskies bounce back from a 4-5 Big Ten season in 2024? They’ll likely take a step forward, but to be that heavily favored (60.3 percent) against the preseason No. 12 team in the country is a bit of a stretch, to say the least. 

No. 2: at Wisconsin

Ludicrous. A program on the heels of a 3-6 Big Ten campaign, one that did very little to revamp its squad heading into 2025, and which many project as a bottom-third team in the conference is projected to knock off the 12th-best squad in the nation? Well, ESPN’s numbers seem to think so. But despite Camp Randall being a tough venue, we adamantly disagree with the prediction.

No. 1: vs. USC

Head-scratching. Sigh-inducing. “You can't be serious?”-prompting. Look, the analytics don't kid, but ... maybe this is some kind of joke? Can (the key word being "can") the Trojans knock off the Illini? One hundred percent. Should the Trojans – who went 4-5 in their first season in the Big Ten last year – be more than 60 percent favorites in this one? Abso-freaking-lutely not.