Aug 8, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Rico Dowdle (5) checks the scoreboard during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-The USAToday Network via Imagn Images Scott Kinser-The USAToday Network via Imagn Images

ESPN’s FPI absolutely buries the Panthers with brutal 2025 win total projection

Originally posted on Carolina Panthers on SI
By Schuyler Callihan | Last updated Aug 11, 2025 6:00 PM ET

It's year two for Dave Canales in Carolina and year three for starting quarterback Bryce Young. After a strong finish to the 2024 campaign, there's some hope and optimism entering the 2025 season locally, and even a little buzz nationally.

Every year, I do a breakdown of what the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) says about the Panthers' schedule and give some push back on the games I feel like the computers have wrong. We're doing that today, but I have to admit, I was not expecting the percentages to be what they are.

Folks, the FPI has the Panthers favored to win in just one game this season. One. Don't believe me? Well, let's take a look.

What the ESPN FPI says for each game (% = CAR's chance to win)

at Jacksonville Jaguars - 40.8%

at Arizona Cardinals - 38.2%

vs. Atlanta Falcons - 49.7%

at New England Patriots - 41.9%

vs. Miami Dolphins - 45.5%

vs. Dallas Cowboys - 44%

at New York Jets - 48.1%

vs. Buffalo Bills - 33%

at Green Bay Packers - 32.1%

vs. New Orleans Saints - 57.2%

at Atlanta Falcons - 43.1%

at San Francisco 49ers - 36.2%

vs. Los Angeles Rams - 39.2%

at New Orleans Saints - 49.7%

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 43.4%

vs. Seattle Seahawks - 48.5%

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 36.4%

Games the FPI should have the Panthers favored in

vs. Atlanta Falcons - The NFC South, for the most part, is going to be extremely competitive. Homefield advantage in the NFL still means something, even in Charlotte. It's still early in the season, and fans will still be feeling good about the direction of the franchise, meaning it should be a good atmosphere. Michael Penix showed some flashes last year, but not nearly enough to be favored on the road against a divisional foe.

at New York Jets - The Jets have a stingy-looking defense, but questions abound on the offensive side of the ball. Is Justin Fields the answer they've been searching for? My guess is probably not. As long as they don't turn the ball over a bunch, I like their chances in this win.

at New Orleans Saints - Really? No like, I mean, are we serious? Yikes! Even on the road, the Panthers should be favored in this matchup. The Saints aren't going anywhere in 2025 and may be in the mix for the top pick in the draft. I'd like to see the computer's math on this one.

vs. Seattle Seahawks - This one is subjective; however, Carolina's roster has improved enough to where they're in the same ballpark as Seattle. At least on paper, that is. Sam Darnold may have revived his career, but perhaps a return to the Queen City brings back not-so-fond memories.

This article first appeared on Carolina Panthers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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