Evaluating Bucs Landing Maxx Crosby In ESPN’s Trade Proposal

In addition to his production, Crosby would bring a Cal Ripken-esque iron man quality with him. He is currently second among all edge rushers in snaps played this season, just 13 shy of Brian Burns who has an extra game on Crosby thanks to Thursday Night Football. He was 19th in snaps last year despite playing just 12 games. If he were allowed to continue this trend in Tampa Bay — and I wouldn’t want to be the guy who has to tell Maxx Crosby he has to come off the field — he would almost completely eliminate any snaps that both Chris Braswell and Anthony Nelson play and turn Diaby and Haason Reddick into a two-man rotation opposite him.

When just considering the caliber of player that he is, I would be all in favor of acquiring a player of Crosby’s caliber. And when you consider the price Tannenbaum is suggesting — a 2nd and 4th round selection — where do I sign? That is a no-brainer deal that any personnel executive would make in a heartbeat.

The reason is that the trade package Tannenbaum suggests is entirely too light.

Fair Value For Maxx Crosby

We can approach this situation in two ways. Using my valuation projections, Maxx Crosby is worth about $37.5 million per year. He is under contract for five years as he just signed an extension this past off-season. When evaluating these trades, I tend to stick to the years that have guaranteed money tied to it. That would be 2025 and 2026. But given that Crosby is just 28 I am going to consider 2027 as well.

That’s 2.65 years of a $37.5 million per year player coming out to just under $100 million in value. He’s only due $82.2 million over that same time period which gives the acquiring team another $17.2 million in contractual surplus value for a total of about $116.5 million.

Assuming the Bucs will pick no worse than 20th overall in next year’s draft the value of their 2026 1st round pick is worth at maximum $61.26 million. If they include their 2027 1st, at a 10% discount given the time value of the asset, is worth another $55.13 million. The total value of the two picks is $116.39 million — almost dead even with the valuation for Crosby.

This is much closer to the true price to secure the services of Mad Maxx. But if you are skeptical of the valuation research I have done independently, we can look to a recent trade for guidance. Just last month, the Green Bay Packers gave up two first rounders and Kenny Clark for another premier pass rusher in Micah Parsons. Green Bay then signed Parsons to a deal that would keep him in town through 2029, the same time horizon Crosby is under contract for. Now Parsons is two years younger and widely considered a tick better than Crosby. Hence why Crosby would net a slightly lesser package. But only slightly.

In speaking with a league source, they agreed a Crosby trade would likely require two firsts.

Long-term Ramifications

This deal would have significant effects on the Bucs long-term roster building decisions as well. The Glazers hold their personnel department to a fairly strict spending budget right around the salary cap each year. They have only deviated from this once in recent years when they gave the okay for Jason Licht and company to re-sign almost the entirety of the team’s 2021 free agent class and pushed team cash spending more than 20% over the salary cap.

Bringing in Maxx Crosby would mean bringing in over $30 million in cash obligations for this year. That would push their cash spending over $300 million and almost 10% over this year’s salary cap. That seems like an unlikely approval. Beyond this year, it would also reduce the homegrown talent the team could commit to long term.

In addition to Crosby’s almost $31 million salary in 2026, the Bucs would owe a combined near-$170 million to just seven players — Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke, Chris Godwin, Antoine Winfield Jr., Zyon McCollum and Ben Bredeson. That doesn’t account for the likely raise for Mayfield, as well as potential re-signings of Mike Evans, Haason Reddick, Rachaad White, Lavonte David and Cade Otton. With the exception of Evans, this may all seem fine as a trade-off for Crosby.

And I’d agree with that.

But this goes beyond 2026. This would also jeopardize future extensions for Cody Mauch, Graham Barton, Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby.

This is not to argue that the Bucs shouldn’t make a deal like this. It is just to point out there are layers to a decision like this that go way beyond just the specific terms of the deal.

Look, if the Bucs are truly in the market for a premier pass rusher to help make up for the loss of Kancey this year, they would be hard-pressed to find a better option than Crosby. I like where Tannenbaum’s thinking led him to this proposal in terms of a real upgrade for the Bucs, but the package he suggested would have Raiders general manager John Spytek laughing Jason Licht off the phone.

Elite players in their prime usually require significant assets in return and Crosby is no exception. It is a deal that is unlikely to transpire because the fair value is perhaps a bridge too far for Licht, who rightfully loves his picks. And he should, considering his track record of turning those picks into quality cost-controlled talent. But that is when you typically find a fair trade. When the cost given up feels like it is almost not worth it.