Fantasy Football 2026: Week 1 Starts and Sits

I think we have to some extent but not enough. There is no reason he should be getting drafted as the QB17. Prior to last season, this offense has produced the QB6 (Kirk Cousins) in 2023 and the QB11 (Sam Darnold) in 2024 in points per game. Now, they add Kyler Murray who is one of the best rushing QBs, which we know is a cheat code for fantasy football.

Murray starts off his Vikings career at home in a dome against a Packers defense without Micah Parsons. The Packers defense without Parsons in weeks 16 through the Wildcard ranked 26th in dropback EPA. This should be a competitive game that will keep the ball in Murray’s hands against a Swiss cheese (no pun intended) defense. If you were a late QB drafter this year, fire up K1 with confidence.

Start Tyler Shough at Lions

You would need to be in an extremely deep league to be dusting off Tyler Shough in Week 1 considering all of the major QBs are healthy. However, I absolutely love this matchup for the second-year QB. This game is projected for the second-most points in Week 1.

It has real deal shootout potential to me. The Lions offense will be able to keep the foot on the gas to keep the Saints aggressive. The Lions defense is already incredibly banged up on top of not being great to start with. The Saints were the fastest-paced offense in the NFL last year (more plays = good). And last but not least, it is in a dome!

I am not even super bullish on Shough. I just can’t deny a great matchup when I see one. So, if you are in a deep league. I am talking your 16- or 18-man elimination leagues, or in a super flex, the 26-year-old sophomore better be in your starting lineup.

Other Starts: Matt Stafford vs. 49ers, Jared Goff vs. Saints, Baker Mayfield at Bengals, and Malik Willis at Raiders

Sit Drake Maye at Seahawks 

It’s almost like the last real NFL football I watched was Drake Maye playing the worst game of his career against the Seattle Seahawks. I hate copying and pasting from games. I do not think that is how it is going to go down. This is as simple as: the Seahawks’ defense is really good, and I don’t want to test them on the night of their ring ceremony.

Maybe AJ Brown will be all the cavalry Maye needs to avenge the Patriots from the Super Bowl last year. I am just not sold that will be the case because I still worry about their offensive line. I would start many of the QBs I listed above over Maye in this one. 

Sit Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos

As someone who is a fan of great QB play, I am objectively excited for Patrick Mahomes’s return. That said, I am worried about his fantasy outlook in Week 1. A sneaky part of why Mahomes is a good fantasy option is that he scrambles more than you think.

I just don’t see him doing a whole lot of that early in the season while he is still working back from a torn ACL. Beyond that, I think the Broncos are a horrible matchup for the Chiefs, and that proved to be true last season. 

The Broncos ran the 3rd most man coverage in the NFL last year, which is where the Chiefs’ receivers really struggled. Unless the camp hype about 5th-round rookie Cyrus Allen is legit, who did the Chiefs add to help fix that issue? I don’t have a good answer for you, which is why I would sit the 2-time MVP in Week 1. 

Other Sits: Jayden Daniels at Eagles and Bo Nix at Chiefs

Start Chuba Hubbard vs. Bears

Speaking of positional groups that didn’t get better, the Bears Defense haha… I know most people who are reading this are mostly Bears fans, so I won’t belabor the point. Yet, like the Chiefs receivers, I just struggle to see what is different about Dennis Allen’s unit that would not lift the wheels up for Chuba Hubbard.

Hubbard was widely considered a fantasy bust last year after being benched for Rico Dowdle midway through the season. Many forget that he was playing through injury for a large portion of 2025. Now the tables are turned: he is healthy, and his competition, Jonathan Brooks, is the one dealing with injuries.

We also have to remember that the Panthers extended Hubbard and just named him a team captain. For all of the excitement that surrounds a talented unknown in Brooks, he is still starting the season with his biggest weakness that has kept him off the field: injuries.

That is why all the signs are pointing up for Hubbard, who is in a backfield that could be pretty difficult to predict as the season goes on. If you can’t start Hubbard this week then I don’t know when you can.

Start Bhayshul Tuten vs. Browns 

Bhayshul Tuten is one of the most polarizing players of the summer. You are either in or you are out. I believe we are going to learn a lot in Week 1 on who was right. Now, you might hear Browns defense and be scared off, but this isn’t the Browns 2025 defense.

The obvious loss was Myles Garrett, but they also lost their defensive coordinator too. More than just their losses on defense, I don’t believe that this is going to be a competitive game. The Jaguars won’t need to keep up with a bad Browns offense. They should want to establish the run, which is why I like Tuten in this one.

The billion-dollar question is how will the workload be dispersed in this backfield. All I really care about for Tuten’s sake is will he get cracks at the goal line with Chris Rodriguez looming. If he does, he will smash his ADP. If he doesn’t, you probably can’t start him with confidence. We will be in the dark for Week 1, so you might as well roll the dice in a good matchup!

Other Starts: Rhamondre Stevenson at Seahawks, Jaylen Warren vs. Falcons and Tony Pollard vs. Jets (deep leagues)

Sit Jacory Croskey-Merritt at Eagles

I started off this summer really intrigued with the Commanders offense in fantasy under new OC David Blough. The messaging has been that they were going to evolve to a more under-center run game/play action centric offense similar to the Bears with Ben Johnson. 

I thought this would benefit no one more than Bill Croskey-Merritt, who is reportedly viewed as the team’s lead back. All that optimism seems to be drying up given the extremely alarming offensive line concerns that are plaguing this team. Their stud left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, went down for the year, and it has all been downhill from there.

Some reporters are saying it’s the worst offensive line they have ever seen in Washington and it looked that way against the Lions backups in the preseason. Welp, nothing like facing the Eagles defensive line to fix it! This is an awful fantasy matchup for the Commanders and a backfield that also could be pretty hard to predict. That’s why I am passing on Bill in Week 1.

Sit MarShawn Lloyd at Vikings

One of the major developments of recent weeks is that the Packers rushing attack will most likely be without Josh Jacobs for the foreseeable future. This puts MarShawn Lloyd as the next in line to take over his workload.

Lloyd has been a total unknown throughout his career because he has been injured for the last 2 seasons. He has one career regular-season carry to his name. Unknown doesn’t mean bad. In fact, it could mean there is an untapped ceiling there.

The problem with Lloyd is the Packers traded for Kaleb Johnson right before the season started. Johnson has also been disappointing in his young career, but it sounds like the Packers are trying to get him up to speed quickly. I am expecting some type of split in Jacobs’s absence. 

Not to mention, this is also a bad matchup against a tough Vikings defense. I need to wait and see how this rotation unfolds before I can be confident in the Packers’ backfield against a defense like this. 

Other Sits: Jeremiah Love at Chargers, Quinshon Judkins at Jaguars and RJ and Harvey at Chiefs

Start Jameson Williams vs. Saints

Jameson Williams is one of these other polarizing players that seemed to be slipping down draft boards in the summer. I am pretty much at ADP with Jamo but I feel like people are forgetting he finished as the WR10 in half PPR scoring last year.

The Lions can’t seem to praise him enough from Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. I know his boom-or-bust nature can be frustrating when you are on the wrong side of things, yet this projected game script is what can elicit a boom week. Remember, this is the 2nd-highest projected point total of the week.

All we need is a long Jameson Williams touchdown for him to pay off. Everything is shaping up for him to get one in what is likely a fireworks show. 

Start Carnell Tate vs. Jets

Ugh, I don’t like telling you to start any Titans. For those who didn’t watch Tennessee in the preseason, let’s just say they didn’t look great. I would take it a step further; they looked pretty terrible.

Cam Ward still looks troubling. The dink-and-dunk scheme was frustrating. The offensive line doesn’t inspire any confidence. I just don’t want to put that many chips on this unit. All of that to say, if you can’t start Carnell Tate this week against the Jets, then when the heck can you start him?

I know he didn’t have a catch in the preseason (including a disgusting drop). But Tate was drafted as the WR1 of this rookie class, 4th overall. This happened. That investment matters. They are going to try to get him involved early and often. So while his surrounding circumstances are concerning, he is still really talented, and this is a soft matchup.

I would give him a spin at your flex spot or if your team starts 3 WRs. If he continues his preseason slump into this game, then he is on the bench until further notice. 

Other Starts: Mike Evans at Rams, DJ Moore at Texans, Chris Godwin at Bengals (full PPR), Josh Downs vs. Ravens (full PPR), and Jalen Coker vs. Bears (deep league)

Sit Rashee Rice vs Broncos 

This is probably my most prominent fade of the week given how good Rashee Rice has been in fantasy when on the field. He has been an unquestioned WR1 when it comes to points per game. His role in the Chiefs offense has been a fantasy cheat code that has peppered him with opportunity.

There is a difference between being a great fantasy receiver and being a great real-life fantasy receiver. Rice is more of a catered-to player who is awesome after the catch. He relies mostly on the scheme to get him targets, which is killer against zone coverage. 

When he runs into teams that play more man, like the Broncos and Texans last year, his fantasy production really tails off. If you look at any advanced metric against man coverage, Rice ranks towards the bottom. Not to mention, all the reports are indicating Rice does not look 100% after the cleanup procedure he had on his knee.

It is very much in the realm of possibilities that he starts the season off slow. Which is why if you are deep at receiver, I would consider benching him in Week 1.

Sit Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Browns

One of the biggest questions in the fantasy community is who was going to emerge as the Jaguars WR1. Will it be the late-season breakout, Parker Washington, who this coaching staff can’t seem to talk up enough? Or, will it be the rookie wonder Brian Thomas Jr.? I am open to either case, but I am not expecting BTJ to win this battle in Week 1.

It has been confirmed that Thomas Jr. will be the X receiver of this offense, meaning he will play mostly on the outside and on the line of scrimmage. That means he is going to see a lot of Denzel Ward in this matchup. In addition, I just can’t see this game script working in favor of the Jags passing game.

Their weakness is their pass protection, so it would make sense if they focus on establishing the run while they don’t need to worry about the Browns offense. I think better days are ahead for BTJ, just not in this bout.

Other sits: Quentin Johnston vs. Cardinals, Makai Lemon vs. Commanders, Michael Wilson vs. Chargers, and Matthew Golden vs. Vikings

Start: Juwan Johnson at Lions

If you couldn’t tell, I think a lot of points are going to be scored in the Lions and Saints game! A quiet winner: the Saints’ 8th overall pick, WR, was placed on IR; it was their TE, Juwan Johnson. He now becomes the clear 2nd target on this team after an underrated 2025 season. 

Johnson’s snap participation is dependent on game script. He doesn’t provide much on running plays, so this is a game script that should keep him on the field if the Saints are throwing their way back in it. Johnson is one of my favorite streams of the week.

Other Starts: Isaiah Likely vs. Cowboys and Charlie Kolar vs. Cardinals (sleeper)

Sit Jake Ferguson at Giants

Outside of full PPR leagues, Jake Ferguson is really just a name to me at this point. Most of his fantasy production was bolstered last year in the weeks without CD Lamb. In the weeks after Lamb’s absence, he averaged 6.96 points per game, which would’ve ranked as the TE24 on the season.

The hope with Ferguson is that he is able to sneak into the end zone while attached to such a high-powered offense. He is not going to get home on opportunity and volume behind 2 of the league’s best target hogs. I would rather make a different bet, especially in Week 1 when there are so many options available.

Other sits: Oronde Gadsden II vs. Cardinals, Darren Waller vs. Bears, and TJ Hockenson vs. Packers