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Aug 9, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) embraces Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) before a preseason game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images Travis Register-Imagn Images

Fantasy Projection Gives Trevor Lawrence Bleak Outlook in 2025

Originally posted on Jacksonville Jaguars on SI
By Andy Quach | Last updated Aug 12, 2025 6:00 AM ET

Trevor Lawrence had a rough year for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2024 NFL season. He struggled through the first nine weeks of the campaign before suffering a shoulder sprain. Two weeks later, he returned against the Houston Texans only to get concussed after four completions, which ended his season.

Even when he was healthy, he threw for just 222.7 yards per game in his first nine outings, the lowest mark of his career since he was a rookie. He also gave away seven interceptions to just 11 touchdowns.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that he could bounce back in a major way in 2025, though. He now has Head Coach Liam Coen in his ear, who coaxed a career year out of Baker Mayfield last season as the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also has a new premier target in second-overall pick Travis Hunter Jr. and a new shoulder after getting it surgically repaired back in December.

And yet, not everyone is convinced that Lawrence will be able to get his development back on track this season.

ESPN Fantasy projects Trevor Lawrence to have another down season in 2025

With all of the change surrounding him, Trevor Lawrence should be in a much better position to replicate the success he had in 2022 and 2023, or even improve upon it. The potential that made him the clear top prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Clemson is still all there. With new weapons and a systemic overhaul around him, Lawrence could emerge as a sleeper for the 2025 fantasy season.

Not all analysts feel that way. ESPN currently has him ranked just 22nd among quarterbacks, projecting him to finish with 4,277 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Their model also predicts that he'll log 283 rushing yards and four scores on the ground for a grand total of 278.87 fantasy points. ESPN has him pegged as an uninspiring QB2 for next season:

"Lawrence is entering his fifth NFL season eyeing a bounce-back after an injury-plagued 2024. Lawrence played the bulk of the snaps in nine games and averaged 16.1 fantasy PPG. That would've ranked 15th over the full season and is actually a slight step back from 17.4 in 2022 and 16.4 in 2023."

"The former No. 1 overall pick has yet to deliver a top-10 fantasy campaign (PPG) and that's despite finishing each of his first three NFL seasons in the top 10 among QBs in pass attempts, carries and rush yards. Lawrence is a solid player who adds just enough with his arm and legs to hang in the QB2 mix. His ceiling has obviously been low, but perhaps the presence of Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter and new head coach Liam Coen can get him to the next level. He's a fine but unspectacular late-round pick."

ESPN's projection of 278.87 fantasy points is significantly lower than his totals in both 2023 (258.3) and 2022 (293.4). The Jaguars will be hoping that he not only outplays ESPN's prediction, but also has a career year overall.

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All fantasy draft positions and stats via Fantasy Pros on a 17-game, full-PPR basis

This article first appeared on Jacksonville Jaguars on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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