Fernando Mendoza gets stern warning about Raiders from NFL analyst

Rookie Fernando Mendoza is officially in Vegas and getting ready to eventually take over as the franchise quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. While there's lots of positive buzz around Mendoza, one NFL analyst is sending him a bit of a warning about his chances for the new season.

In a piece out on Wednesday, Ryan Wilson of the NFL's official website projects the best- and worst-case outcomes for rookie quarterbacks in 2026. In the piece, he ran a model using college and rookie quarterback data from 2015 to 2025.

"The goal wasn't to predict the future; quarterback evaluation is too messy for that," he stated. "The goal was to identify the traits and circumstances that best correlate with early NFL success."

On the bright side, he notes that going into the NFL season, Mendoza has "arguably the cleanest analytical profile in the class." But, that comes with a few warnings.

Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza gets warned ahead of NFL season

The problem, Wilson states, is that the quarterback is "behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league."

During the 2025 season in Vegas, sack rate went from 7.3% to 11.1%, and pressure rate went from 35.8% to 40.5%.

"If Mendoza is going to succeed early," Wilson adds, "he'll likely have to do it while overcoming many of the same structural issues that have made life difficult for young passers before him."

So, it's a mixed bag for Mendoza. He comes into Las Vegas with some of the most promising stats to offer, but he'll need a stronger offense to actualize that into wins.