Geno Smith 2025 NFL Redraft Outlook: Veteran Renaissance Back with Carroll?

Let’s talk numbers, because apparently that’s the only language some people understand. Geno Smith finished 17th among fantasy quarterbacks last season with 15.9 average points.

The man currently sits at pick 171 in fantasy drafts, ranking 26th among quarterbacks. That puts him behind Trevor Lawrence, who spent most of last season looking like he’d rather be anywhere else on Sunday afternoons. It also puts him behind Michael Penix Jr., who’s got about as much NFL experience as my nephew’s Pop Warner team, and Cam Ward, a rookie who might be great someday but right now is just potential wrapped in a shiny college highlight reel.

What makes this even more ridiculous is that Smith was a top-six fantasy quarterback just two seasons ago, putting up 18.7 points per game. But apparently, having one down year while your team falls apart around you means you’re suddenly fantasy football poison. The logic here is about as sound as a screen door on a submarine.

Brock Bowers isn’t just good, he’s legitimately elite. The guy had one of the best rookie tight end seasons in recent memory, and now he gets to work with a quarterback who actually knows how to find the middle of the field. Jakobi Meyers remains a reliable possession receiver who can move the chains, and Ashton Jeanty, the sixth overall pick, should keep defenses honest enough that they can’t just camp out in coverage all day.

Then there’s Tre Tucker, who’s been waiting two years for a quarterback who can actually get him the ball downfield. Tucker runs a 4.4 forty with a vertical, but he’s been catching passes from quarterbacks who couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn if they were standing inside it. Geno Smith was second in the league with 24 attempts over 30 yards last season.

If you want to talk about overlooked advantages, let’s discuss the Raiders’ schedule. They get matchups against the AFC South, which isn’t exactly a murderers’ row of defensive juggernauts. They also get dates with the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, two teams that spent last season making opposing quarterbacks look like Hall of Famers.

This isn’t about projecting Smith to be the next Patrick Mahomes. It’s about recognizing that he’s walking into a situation that’s significantly better than where he’s been, with weapons he’s never had, against a schedule that’s favorable.

Geno Smith 2025 Fantasy Outlook

Let’s not forget who’s calling the shots in Las Vegas now. Pete Carroll isn’t some rookie coordinator trying to prove himself with fancy schemes. He’s a coach who knows how to maximize what his quarterbacks can do well. He took Smith from afterthought to playoff quarterback in Seattle, and now he gets to do it again with better pieces around him.

Carroll’s offensive philosophy has always been about putting players in positions to succeed, not forcing square pegs into round holes. He understands Smith’s strengths: the quick release, the ability to throw with anticipation, the willingness to take shots downfield when they’re there. In Vegas, he’ll have more opportunities to showcase all of those skills.

Here’s what kills me about the current fantasy landscape: everyone’s chasing the shiny new toys while ignoring the proven commodities sitting right there at bargain prices. Geno Smith at pick 171 isn’t just value, it’s highway robbery.

You’re getting a quarterback who’s proven he can produce fantasy-relevant numbers, who’s now in a better situation than he’s ever been in, with a coach who’s already shown he can maximize Smith’s potential. Meanwhile, people are reaching for rookies and hoping for miracles from quarterbacks who’ve done nothing but disappoint.

The upside here isn’t just about Smith being a decent backup quarterback for your fantasy team. With the right matchups and a little bit of health luck, he could easily outperform his draft position by a country mile. We’re talking about a guy who could finish as a low-end QB1 being drafted like he’s fighting for a roster spot.