How Sauce Gardner Trade Morphs Colts' Future

After the 2023 season, Gardner became the first cornerback since the AFL/NFL merger to be selected an AP First-Team All-Pro in each of his first two seasons.

His career 90.8 defensive grade per Pro Football Focus is the best among all cornerbacks league-wide since 2022.

He has allowed a completion rate of 50.3% across 55 NFL games, good for the best mark in the league since 2022.

He's forced 49 incompletions since entering the league, good for the most of any player since 2022.

Just about every cornerback metric leaves you with one conclusion: Gardner is one of, if not the best, player at his position in the league.

The deal between the Colts and Jets was the first time a cornerback was traded for multiple first-round draft selections since the Los Angeles Rams acquired Jalen Ramsey from the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019. Ramsey's tenure would include two AP first-team All-Pro selections, along with a Super Bowl victory that was the Rams' first Super Bowl in 22 years.

Gardner turned 25 years old this past August. He signed a four-year, $120.4 million extension with the Jets this past offseason, meaning he's now under contract with the Colts through the 2030 season. The price tag of two first-round picks feels appropriate.

Rounding Out an All-New Secondary

General manager Chris Ballard strayed from his typical approach in free agency this past March when he gave out deals to cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Camryn Bynum, both worth over $15 million annually. The team also signed quarterback Daniel Jones to a $14 million deal.

Jones leads the league in passing yards through nine weeks, while Bynum is allowing the third-lowest passer rating when targeted among all safeties this season, per Pro Football Focus. Ward is also PFF's second-best cornerback in defensive grade.

The Colts' 7-2 record is tied for the league's best through nine weeks. The team's 3,450 total yards of offense is the best mark in the league, as is their 290 total points. Their point differential of +109 is 27 points more than the next-best team.

Injuries have plagued the team's secondary, with Ward playing in just four of the team's first ten games (following this week). One of the team's top corners from last season, Jaylon Jones, made his return from injury this past week against the Steelers after not seeing the field since week one.

Offseason trade acquisition Mekhi Blackmon and undrafted free agent Jonathan Edwards have been thrust into starting roles in the absence of key starters.

While the team currently owns the first seed in the AFC, defense has been an evident issue. The unit is allowing the seventh most passing yards per game in the league.

The Colts are one of two teams with a winning record and a bottom-ten passing defense. Getting back Jones last week, adding Gardner this week, and Ward likely returning after next week's bye should help the struggling unit immensely.

The Departure of Adonai Mitchell

As part of the deal, the Colts shipped away 2024 second-round pick Adonai Mitchell. He finishes his 25-game tenure in Indy with 32 receptions for 464 yards on 71 targets. Mitchell led all rookies in drop percentage in 2024 (minimum 34 targets) at 14.8% according to PFF.

His troubles were quickly overshadowed by 800+ yard seasons from Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs. The trio became the first in the league to all surpass the 800-yard mark in a season since the Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl team in 2021.

A second-round pick in 2022, Pierce managed 1,106 receiving yards through his first two seasons. The Colts’ decision to invest in him with their top pick came with naturally high expectations, and the decision to take Mitchell with a premium pick in 2024 made the front office's desire for more production from Pierce abundantly clear.

Pierce would respond by leading the team in receiving yards in 2024 with 824, also leading the league in yards per catch. Through seven games played this year, his 501 yards put him on pace for the first 1,000-yard season of his career. The fourth-year receiver also currently leads the league in yards per catch for a second straight season. He's gone over 60 yards in all but two games.

The former Bearcat now welcomes Sauce Gardner, his former teammate at Cincinnati.

The success of the team's three starting receivers left little opportunity for 23-year-old Mitchell, but after a concussion knocked Pierce out for two weeks, Mitchell filled his role in the offense.

In the third quarter of Indy's week four matchup in Los Angeles, Mitchell hauled in a deep pass from Jones before spinning away from two defenders en route to a 75-yard touchdown, but a costly fumble while attempting to reach out across the goal line resulted in a turnover.

Later in the same game, a 53-yard touchdown by Jonathan Taylor was wiped off the board when Mitchell was called for holding on the play.

Mitchell would be a healthy scratch against the Arizona Cardinals two weeks later when Pierce returned. He would play a total of 13 more offensive snaps after telling The Athletic's James Boyd he hoped he hadn't played his last.

"I think AD is a very talented player," said head coach Shane Steichen. "This is a part of the business."

Change in Offseason Outlook

This Colts season is far from over, and judging by the acquisition of Gardner, it doesn't appear the team thinks it will be until February. The team has very obviously entered "win now" mode with Jones at the helm, and mortgaging your next two first-round picks bodes real confidence that this team will ideally remain in championship contention for the foreseeable future.

Indianapolis is currently slated to enter the 2026 free agency period with nearly $58 million in cap space, the 13th most in the league per Spotrac. Key free agents include starters Jones, Pierce, Nick Cross, and Braden Smith.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported last month that the Colts will look to extend Jones following the season. Opting to extend Jones, who is currently quarterbacking one of the best offenses in the league, will almost certainly come with a hefty price tag.

If Indy were to reward Jones with top 12 money, his average annual salary would surpass $46 million. That would be nearly 80% of the team's projected cap space.

Comparably, the Minnesota Vikings went 14-3 last season and received elite play from quarterback Sam Darnold on a one-year deal. Despite the success, the team moved on, and Darnold has now led the Seahawks to a 6-2 record.

His 9.6 yards per attempt is the best mark in the league. It remains to be seen if letting him walk in free agency was the correct decision, but through eight games this year, Minnesota has already outdone its loss total from last season.

Jones has led the Colts to their best record in 15 years through nine games. Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen entered this season with their jobs on the line for a multitude of reasons, the largest being a lack of consistent quarterback play.

Jones may not be Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but what front office would risk their jobs by moving on into more uncertainty at the sport's most important position?

With the departure of Mitchell, it would only make sense for the team to prioritize a Pierce extension. He has essentially been the team's only downfield threat over the past two years, with his 15 catches over 20+ yards downfield since 2023 leading the team by a wide margin.

Spotrac lists Pierce's market value north of $15 million, a number that will only increase with continued production in a league-best offense. Moving on from Mitchell likely increases the chances that the Colts work to get a deal done with Pierce before he hits the open market.

The Colts will also have to either extend or replace right tackle Smith this offseason. Smith has been the team's right tackle since 2018.

Fourth-year safety Cross has quickly emerged as one of the team's most underrated players and will also be due for a new contract this offseason.

His 20 defensive stops are the fourth most of any safety this season, per PFF. With Bynum already on a rather steep deal, the Colts will have to decide if they'd like both of their safeties making eight figures annually.

Although he just signed a deal worth over $120 million, Gardner's cap hit with the team in 2026 is just $9.5 million, the 11th highest on the team.

Indianapolis won't lose any financial flexibility anytime soon after acquiring Gardner, but a shortage of day one draft selections will present a challenge for Ballard and company when it comes time to replace those lost in free agency.

What's Next?

One thing this trade makes evident: the Colts organization has faith that this roster is good enough, especially after the addition of Gardner, to win a Super Bowl. This deal dramatically shifts the outlook of the franchise's urgency to compete for a title, and with eight games to go, the Colts have a legitimate opportunity to force the playoffs to run through Indianapolis.

Gardner is looking to make his debut in blue and white against the Falcons this Sunday in Berlin, Germany, at 9:30 a.m. ET in the team's final game before the bye.