How Should We Be Perceiving the Denver Broncos?

The Numbers Don’t Lie

The raw numbers are in line with what many expected going into the season, even if the eye test isn’t.

Defensively, Denver is as-advertised. They are fourth in total EPA and per play, first in success rate, first in sack percentage (10.5%), and second in points-per-drive at 1.39.

In counting stats, they are just as dominant: first in sacks (21), second in pressure percentage (31%), and first in pressures despite being only blitzing 29% of the time. Nik Bonitto looks like Von Miller reincarnated and is on pace to break the sack record. Patrick Surtain and the secondary hasn’t slowed down, allowing Denver to get to the QB with just four and five rushers.

The defense is Denver’s anchor, no doubt, but numbers paint the offense in a positive light, too. While frustrating, and woefully inefficient at times, the metrics reflect a positive start to the season. From an advanced stats perspective, the Broncos offense is currently:

• 12th in EPA per-play
• 11th in Total EPA
• 4th in EPA per-pass
• 12th in EPA per-rush
• 7th in RedZone EPA per play
• 9th in first-downs and yards
• 13th Y/G
• 5.0 Y/A

Forgive the info-dump, but those are some good numbers.

The passing and rushing offense has balance, something Denver has desperately needed. J.K. Dobbins has been a major reason for that balance — the new addition has the fifth-most rushing yards in the league.

They need to increase their efficiency, but Denver is above league average for most important advanced numbers, and carry all the statistical markers for a true contender. Their splits by half are very concerning, and are the cause of their inconsistency, but the numbers match the early season projections.

What is Bo Nix?

‘Is Bo Nix playing well’? is a question that no one seems settled on. Sometimes it looks like he’s holding the team back, other times it looks like he’s steering the ship.

While Nix hasn’t been playing the cleanest ball, all the promise shows itself on a weekly basis.

The Eagles game was a microcosm of the Bo Nix experience in 2025. In the first half, his bad habits flashed. Getting antsy in the pocket, and lack of a solid base led to inaccuracy. He missed long by an inch on yet another deep ball, and the offense was unable to generate any momentum. He was way too inefficient, which continues to be the black mark on his resume.

In the fourth quarter, Nix settled in and delivered a signature performance. The clincher came on a lead-changing two-point conversion, where Nix threw a perfect pass to Troy Franklin on an out route. He completed big throw after big throw against a very intimidating Eagles defense, including a perfect 3rd-and-15 pass to Courtland Sutton to keep their hopes alive.

Nix beat the Eagles on the road, something no QB has been able to do in over a year.

Nix has been shaking off his reputation game-by-game since he’s entered the league. He’s shown plenty of arm strength and agility that many left out of his draft profile. He is capable of throwing down the sticks and across the middle of the field, despite many assuming he sticks to the line of scrimmage.

Nix has faced the blitz adequately, something once thought a death sentence for him. And despite his reputation as a ‘checkdown merchant’, he’s been connecting on long touchdowns more than anyone besides Baker Mayfield.

Drew Brees wasn’t Drew Brees during his second year with Sean Payton. Nix might not be Brees yet, either, but he’s following that trajectory.

Recalibrating Expectations

Before Week 5 in Philadelphia, Broncos Country thought that the season would become an over-hyped tragedy. The team looked inept and ineffective, only capable of sneaking by the disastrous Titans. Now, expectations couldn’t be higher. If Denver can best the Eagles, they can beat anyone.

While Sunday’s game was a statement of Denver’s capabilities, they have to prove they can do it again; Denver has still only won three games against teams with winning records since the start of 2024. They have much to prove before they can claim elite status.

Their own worst enemy is themselves; each game has been the victim of operational penalties and self-defeating errors. Cornerback Riley Moss has been on the receiving end of lots of criticism, but LB Alex Singleton is the bigger flaw in the defense. He’s a massive liability in coverage and space that opposing offenses are keenly aware of.

In the next coming weeks, Denver’s schedule eases up. Now is the time to build momentum and capitalize off the comeback win. They can validate their pre-season expectations, like they did in Philadelphia, or return to a state of frustration and alarm.

The division is down, the AFC is weaker than usual, and Denver has the infrastructure (and defense) to make January noise. It’s been bumpier than envisioned, but the Denver Broncos are right where we thought they’d be.