How the Commanders can Overcome Latest Slim Playoff Projection

The national consensus around the Washington Commanders is that they’ll once again miss out on the playoffs and be picking in the top-10 when the nation’s capital hosts the NFL Draft in 2027. In the latest projection model by The Athletic, the Commanders were given a 17% chance to make the playoffs and an 8% chance to win their division.

There is no doubt that the Commanders have a tough road ahead of them if they want to make their second playoff appearance in three years. Before their Week 7 bye, Washington has to play five games against opponents within the NFC, games that could become crucial tiebreakers when it comes to the wild card race. If they don’t want to fall behind, they need to win a minimum of 3 games so as not to dig themselves a pit in the division and conference standings.

After their bye week, things are not exactly much easier as they host the Eagles and Rams in the first two weeks after their break. However, after this initial hump, their remaining nine matchups feature one team that made the playoffs last year. If Washington can finish the first half of their schedule at or one game above .500, they would be in a strong position to overcome the slim odds.

Must play complementary football the entire year

In games where Washington’s defense gives up 24 points or fewer, Jayden Daniels boasts an impressive 12-0 record. To stay competitive with the high-powered offenses they face in the first half of the year, Washington’s revamped pass-rush unit needs to maintain consistent pressure on the quarterback so as not to expose the remaining gaps in the secondary.

In 2025, Washington allowed opponents to convert on third down more than 40% of the time, allowing drives to continue for much longer than they needed to. The 10th worst unit in the league at this metric, they must flip the script this year to allow Jayden Daniels to get the ball in his hands and drive the team down the field.