Jalen McMillan Is Breaking Out

One of my biggest concerns with his overall profile was how well he could make contested catches. He only caught five contested opportunities over four years at Washington. Last year he maintained his 25% contested catch rate, grabbing just three of his 12 opportunities. But so far this year? He has hauled in both of his chances to make big time grabs through contact. And let’s not forget that the reason he missed most of the regular season was due to an amazing grab where he held onto the ball through contact as he fell on his neck in the preseason.

Those contested catches aren’t the only difficult catches he is making this year. On multiple passes against the Dolphins, he had to hit the deck to make sliding grabs on low throws. On an 18-yard deep over he had green space to run to across the field, but he had to twist back on the slide to grab a dying pass from Mayfield. The following target to him was a similar ball where he had to pull it off the floor on a deep dig. McMillan is making high-level catches on less-than-clean balls with confidence and authority.

Trust And Volume With Mayfield

At the end of last year McMillan had his first breakout at the end of the season after the Bucs lost Chris Godwin for the year. He became the Robin to Mike Evans’ Batman. This situation is quite different. He has returned to a crowded receiver room that includes Evans, Godwin, Egbuka, rookie Tez Johnson who has impressed at times this year, as well as tight end Cade Otton. His 14.4% target rate is tied with Egbuka for third amongst that group. His 21% threat rate – the percentage of his routes that he is targeted on – is also tied with Egbuka for second on the team behind Evans and ahead of Godwin.

That’s an impressive climb up Mayfield’s trust chain in a very short order. Part of that is McMillan’s ability to win against both man and zone coverage. Since entering the league last year McMillan is averaging 10.7 yards per target when targeted in man coverage. That’s tops amongst the group. Higher than even Evans. And he performs right in line with his compatriots in zone where his 8.5 yards per target is third to just Egbuka and Evans while he has maintained the second-highest average depth of target at 14.0.

Hi ability to beat man coverage makes McMillan a preferred option to Egbuka as part of Tampa Bay’s top three in 11 personnel as they are set to face the Panthers in a pivotal season finale and explains why the team is using him on third down more than their first-round rookie right now. It also makes for an interesting dynamic in 2026 if Evans decides to retire.

The Dolphins game marks the 17th game of McMillan’s career – effectively a one-year sample size. Bucs fans should be excited because the arrow is up on the young pass catcher.