J.K. Dobbins' resurgence with the Chargers makes him free agency's best RB value despite his injury history

The perception around the running back position hadn't been this good in several years. Free agency last season was full of great players, a culmination of analysis that showed over the years how runners didn't impact the game as much.

As a result, well, well-managed teams took advantage of the extreme market correction. The Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl paying Saquon Barkley, while the Baltimore Ravens with Derrick Henry and the Green Bay Packers with Josh Jacobs are also pretty happy with the initial results they had.

But don't expect this to be a yearly occurrence. This offseason, the running back market isn't nearly as strong, and it will be much harder to find real value among the options.

J.K. Dobbins offers great value, despite the risk

After three consecutive seasons handling severe injuries, J.K. Dobbins had a renaissance year with the Los Angeles Chargers. While he still had to overcome a knee injury and missed four games, Dobbins finished the season with 195 carries, 32 receptions, 1,058 scrimmage yards, and nine touchdowns. It was really a career year for him.

There is an argument for Aaron Jones to be the best running back of this free agency class, and that's totally fair based on their track records in the NFL. But Jones is 30, and Dobbins is only 26. Both have long injury histories, so the age difference is particularly relevant.

Also, the market valuation makes Dobbins an even more appealing option. According to Spotrac, Aaron Jones is expected to get a one-year, $5.6 million deal. Dobbins' market projection comes at $4.1 million per season, with a two-year, $8.1 million contract.

Dobbins has a high ceiling, is younger, and cheaper. If there's one running back worth a short for a contender wanting to get over the hump, it's J.K. Dobbins—even though a plan B on the roster would be key.

Performance

Beyond volume numbers, J.K. Dobbins was fairly efficient in his first season with the Chargers. He had 3.04 yards after contact per attempt, which is 29th in the entire NFL and better than players like Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, Tyrone Tracy, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, and Jonathan Taylor.

The most notable aspect of Dobbins' game in 2024 was his ability to generate explosive plays, which is something particularly important for offenses in this era. With teams playing two-high and wanting to avoid explosives in the passing game, getting those on the ground is huge.

Dobbins had a breakaway rate (designed attempts for more than 15 yards) of 32.7%, which was 11th in the league. That's more than super explosive backs like De'Von Achane, James Cook, and quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Injury risk

The big if with Dobbins is his long history of serious injuries. It included an ACL and LCL tear plus a meniscus trim in 2021 that cost him one and a half seasons, and an Achilles tear in 2023 in the first game of the season. Last season, he missed some games because of an MCL tear.

All those injuries can certainly affect his explosiveness. But Dobbins was a highly talented prospect, with absurd production at Ohio State. A former second-round pick, he showed last season that he is still capable of producing at a high level, and of being explosive, despite all the issues.

If a team wants a high ceiling in free agency, signing a 26-year-old running back with strong recent production is the way to go.