JT’s 2026 Buccaneers Season Predictions

The NFL season is finally upon us. No more player rankings, no more click bait articles and no more speculation. We will finally have real on the field action to talk about. 

So before the opening kick off, allow me to plant my flag once and for all on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What the expectations are and who I think will shine this year.

Here are my 2026 Buccaneers season predictions.

Baker Bounce Back Year

Last year was a disappointment for Baker Mayfield. After a hot start he struggled down the stretch and was a major part of the Bucs collapse. Part of that was due to injury and part of that was his own mental shortcomings.

However, it’s a clean slate and we know that Mayfield is capable of a high level of play. Over the last three seasons he ranks 2nd in the NFL in touchdown passes and 3rd in passing yards. Just imagine where he would rank if he wasn’t awful for half of last season.

Now with a new offensive coordinator and a healthy unit around him, I think we get back to seeing the best of Baker Mayfield. I am expecting roughly 4,300 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. The situation is just too good for him not to thrive.

Rookies Shine

This might be a hot take, but I believe each of the Buccaneers starting defensive rookies will have a case for defensive rookie of the year. Rueben Bain, Josiah Trotter and Keionte Scott all look like excellent plug and play rookies. I predict that all three finish in the top ten voting for defensive rookie of the year and I won’t be shocked at all if bain wins the award. 

On offense, Ted Hurst will have an important role to play at wide receiver. He is the big body target now with Mike Evans gone. I expect him to get a fair amount of snaps and even lead the Bucs in touchdown receptions. I won’t go as far as to put him in the mix for offensive rookie of the year, but pretty good.

Overall, we will look back on this group as a foundational draft class. Whether it be this year or in the future, the Buccaneers having the opportunity to play for a Super Bowl will in large part come on the backs of this draft class. 

Breakout Stars

I think this is the year that the Bucs finally get some love and some of their underrated stars make the pro bowl. Guys like Calijah Kancey and Luke Goedeke are some of the best in the NFL at their position and it’s about time they are recognized as such. I think both get that honor this year.

I also think Bain could make the pro bowl as a rookie. He projects as a strong run defender and a talented pass rusher. If he can land near 9.0 sacks then that could get him in. I also think Scott could join him as a rookie pro bowler. 

Regular Season Record

This is probably what most people want to see. Will the Bucs win the division again or be in position to hit the rest button. For me, my expectation is very clear. 

I believe that this is an 11 win football team. Those wins are easy to find if you look at the schedule. 

I believe the Bucs will get out to a hot start of 4-0. It’s good to catch the Cincinnati Bengals (who are notoriously slow starters) and the Green Bay Packers (who will be without their star pass rusher) early in the season. 

The next five games will be a little more rocky. I’ll give the Buccaneers losses at Dallas, at Carolina and at Chicago. No shame in losing road games against good teams, even though I think the Bucs are better than all three on paper. This brings their record to 6-3 going into the bye week. 

After that is a string of tough, but winnable games. Detroit coming off a short week, the Panthers in Tampa and the Chargers traveling across the country. I think those are all three wins. Then traveling to Baltimore I will call a loss (even though I have some questions with the Ravens this year). This puts the Bucs at 9-4 going into the final month.

In that final month the Bucs will play the Saints twice, the Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams. Can we conservatively call these a split? Sure, the Rams are probably a loss and then we will call one of those division games a loss because division games are always tough. 

At the end of the season I predict the Buccaneers will have a 11-6 record. 

Playoffs? We’re Talking About Playoffs

With 11 wins, the Bucs should win the NFC South. That means they would host a wild card team in the first round of the playoffs. Perhaps the Seattle Seahawks or the Minnesota Vikings or in a best case scenario Mike Evans and the San Francisco 49ers. Regardless of the opponent, I’ll take the home team to win here.

Then in the second round things get more difficult. This could be traveling to Detroit or Los Angeles or maybe hosting a team like the Philadelphia Eagles or Dallas Cowboys. These aren’t easy games. However, as long as the Bucs can avoid the Rams here then I like Tampa to win. I think they are the second best roster in the NFC, so why wouldn’t I pick them over these other teams?

After that, it’s all house money. There would be no shame in losing to the Rams and if you don’t have to play the Rams at all for some reason then it’s a free role at a potential Super Bowl.

We can break down potential playoff matchups when that time comes, but the expectation is a playoff win or two at minimum.