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Oct 3, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jayden Denegal (4). David Frerker-Imagn Images

Latest bowl projection for San Diego State football

Originally posted on San Diego State Aztecs On SI
By Bernie Wilson | Last updated Nov 14, 2025 11:15 AM ET

San Diego State’s humbling 38-6 loss at Hawaii on Saturday night hasn’t changed prognosticators’ minds about picking the Aztecs to play in the Los Angeles Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 13, at SoFi Stadium.

That, of course, means they still expect the Aztecs to win the Mountain West title in their final season in the league before jumping to the Pac-12.

The Aztecs are still in control of their own destiny despite being outplayed in all three phases by the Rainbow Warriors. However, they’ve got less room for error and the league race could tighten up in the final three weeks. The loss cost the Aztecs both a six-game winning streak and sole possession of first place in the MW.

There’s no bigger game for the Aztecs (7-2, 4-1) than Saturday night at Snapdragon Stadium, where they’ll host MW co-head Boise State (6-3, 4-2).

The Broncos are coming off a bye week.

The bowl picture

The BSU-SDSU winner will have the inside track to hosting the MW championship game. However, Hawaii has closed to 4-2 and there are four teams tied at 3-2, including teams that will face the Broncos and Aztecs in the final two weeks.

One of them is New Mexico, which is bowl-eligible under first-year coach Jason Eck, and another is Utah State, which will host BSU in a regular-season finale.

SDSU hosts San Jose State (2-3) next week while BSU hosts Colorado State (1-4).

The MW title game will match the two teams with the highest winning percentages. The team with the highest conference winning percentage outright will host the game.

The LA Bowl, played at the $5 billion home of the Los Angeles Rams and Chargers of the NFL, matches the Mountain West champion against a Pac-12 legacy team.

Why all this matters

The Aztecs have turned around their fortunes in Sean Lewis’ second season as coach and are bowl eligible for the first time since 2002.

SDSU played in 10 straight bowl games from 2010-2019. It made consecutive appearances in 2021-2022 before missing the postseason in Brady Hoke’s final season as head coach in 2023 and Lewis’ first season last fall.

Bowl projections for San Diego State:

CBS Sports

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Washington

CBS Sports was the first to project the Aztecs to the LA Bowl. This would be an easy trip for Aztecs fans, up the freeway to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to cheer for SDSU against former Pac-12 member Washington, which is now in the Big Ten.

USA Today

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona

USA Today switched its Aztecs’ projection to the LA Bowl last week and is sticking with it, although it’s switched opponents from California to Arizona. SDSU beat Cal 34-0 at home on Sept. 20. The Aztecs last played Arizona on Sept. 3, 2022, when the Wildcats won 38-20 in the first game at Snapdragon Stadium, when it was 100 degrees at kickoff.

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN

Los Angeles Bowl, Dec. 13: San Diego State vs. Arizona

For the second straight week, Bonagura is predicting the Aztecs matching up with former Pac-12 and current Big 12 team Arizona. The Wildcats (6-3, 3-3) are bowl eligible after beating Kansas.