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Oct 20, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin reacts against the New York Jets during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

‘Mike Tomlin Has First Losing Record’: ESPN Simulation Is Bad News for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers

Originally posted on Gridiron Heroics
By Angelo Guinhawa | Last updated Sep 4, 2025 8:08 AM ET

As the 2025 NFL season unfolds, the Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves facing significant challenges, particularly with head coach Mike Tomlin’s legacy on the line. Recent simulations by ESPN have forecasted a grim outcome, suggesting that Tomlin could end up with his first losing record, a stark contrast to his previous track record of consistency.

Tomlin, who has never had a losing season in his 18-year tenure, now faces heightened scrutiny as the Steelers bring in veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The addition of Rodgers was seen as a last-ditch effort to revitalize the team and push for playoff contention. However, if the simulation predictions hold true, the pressure on both Tomlin and Rodgers will intensify as fans grow impatient with continued underperformance.

Jul 24, 2025; Latrobe, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) participates in drills during training camp at Saint Vincent College. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Pittsburgh struggled in recent years, failing to win a playoff game since 2016. Tomlin has been clear that he does not wish to dwell on this playoff drought, focusing instead on what lies ahead. Yet, with the team’s inability to secure wins despite having a talented roster, the narrative surrounding Tomlin’s coaching abilities is shifting, and the upcoming season could determine his future.

Rodgers, now in what is expected to be his final season, carries not only the burden of his own performance but also the weight of expectations for the franchise. If he cannot deliver a successful season, it may jeopardize Tomlin’s standing as head coach, leading to discussions about a potential change in leadership.

ESPN Simulation Drops Bad News for Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers With Aaron Rodgers in It

Tomlin’s winning record may be put at rish during Rodgers’ first season in Pittsburgh. This is detailed more in an analysis by Seth Walder for ESPN.

The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.

Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.

The Steelers’ upcoming schedule presents a tough challenge, with high-stakes games that will test their resolve. If the simulation’s predictions prove accurate, it could mark a turning point for the organization, forcing them to reassess their direction moving forward.

Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin looks on in the second half against the Buffalo Bills in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

As the season progresses, both Tomlin and Rodgers must navigate the pressures of expectation and performance. The outcome will not only define their legacies but could also reshape the future of the franchise itself.

Jan 11, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin looks on in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC wild card game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

This article first appeared on Gridiron Heroics and was syndicated with permission.

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