Mike Vrabel Has Completely Overhauled the Patriots Defense

A Big Step Backward in 2024

Defensive regression was expected with the loss of Bill Belichick’s genius, but it was startling just how drastic the drop-off was with largely the same roster.

Under Belichick in 2023, New England ranked eighth in EPA (expected points added) per play. One year later, the unit plummeted to 30th under Jerod Mayo.

The Patriots’ elite run-stuffing ability was the backbone of their defense in 2023. They ranked among the league’s best in all major rushing statistics, including yards per game (4th), yards per carry (1st), success rate (2nd), and first-down percentage (2nd).

Their dominance against the run helped them thrive situationally, forcing opponents into uncomfortable situations. By shutting down the ground game, they eased the burden on the secondary and strengthened the defense as a whole. Ranked in the top six in both Red Zone and third-down defense, the Patriots embodied Belichick’s classic mantra: bend, don’t break.

But without Belichick, along with injuries to key players like Bentley and Christian Barmore, the run defense fell into the bottom half of the league in 2024.

The passing defense has lacked for a couple of seasons. With Christian Gonzalez returning from a torn labrum that ended his rookie campaign early, there was hope for progress. But despite Gonzalez earning All-Pro honors, New England still regressed against the pass.

While the Patriots finished 10th in passing yards allowed per game, underlying metrics told a different story. The defense ranked 30th in both dropback EPA and success rate. Opponents didn’t need to throw late into games because they were usually ahead, thus the lower total yardage.

Belichick’s departure and crucial injuries provided excuses for some decline, but not enough to justify becoming one of the league’s worst units. It’s one of the many reasons Mayo didn’t last beyond a single season.

A New Defensive Scheme

Alongside roster changes, Vrabel is implementing a new defensive identity schematically.

The Patriots have long utilized an odd-man front under both Belichick and Mayo, but this preseason made clear they plan on shifting to a 4-3 base defense.

After recording a league-low 28 sacks in 2024, the Patriots could benefit from a scheme that empowers their defensive line to be more aggressive.

In a four-man front, each lineman is responsible for just one gap instead of two. It should allow pass rushers to play more downhill and hopefully pressure quarterbacks more effectively. 

The tradeoff is that the linebackers must cover more ground — both against the run and in coverage.

Vrabel’s scheme will also feature heavier doses of man coverage. That plays to the strengths of Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III on the perimeter. It also helps explain why Peppers and Kyle Dugger slipped in the team’s evaluation.

Peppers’ Surprising Release

Out of all the departures, Peppers’ release was the most surprising.

The Patriots already lack safety depth. Dugger, not Peppers, was widely rumored to be on the hot seat through camp. 

In hindsight, the signs were there. The team tinkered with Peppers’ role through the summer, and he played in the preseason finale while most starters sat.

Still, it’s surprising considering Peppers ranked as the seventh-best safety in 2024 according to PFF and had the eighth-best coverage grade at his position, albeit in just six games.

The Next Wave of Patriot Defenders

Each of the captains New England let go were entering their age-29 season or later. Some may still have productive years left, but Vrabel and the front office prioritized scheme compatibility and long-term vision over loyalty to aging veterans.

Now who steps up?

The Patriots invested heavily in free agency to secure instant contributors. The aforementioned Williams and Davis will both hold prominent roles. Other additions Harold Landry III and Robert Spillane have both impressed throughout camp and should help New England take a significant leap.

Former Jaguars first-rounder K’Lavon Chaisson has also emerged as a surprise breakout, recently overtaking Keion White for a starting spot.

The youth movement is in the secondary. Jaylinn Hawkins, Craig Woodson, Dell Pettus, and Alex Austin should all see action this season. Hawkins and Woodson are poised to start at safety, but there should be ample opportunities for the collection of the young group.

More Moves to Come?

As Peppers’ release three days after cutdown day showed, no one’s spot is truly secure.

Dugger kept his role with a strong finish to camp, but questions about his future remain uncertain.

The same goes for edge defender Anfernee Jennings. He’s an excellent run-stopper, but he wasn’t thought to be a great fit in Vrabel’s system entering camp. He fought his way back into the mix by flashing more pass-rushing upside late in the summer, but he’s fighting for snaps in a competitive position room.

Both remain on the roster for now, but nothing is finalized yet.

Forging a New Path

Vrabel’s overhaul makes one thing clear: the Patriots are done clinging to the past.

The Belichick-Brady dynasty will forever be idolized in New England, but this is Vrabel’s team now.

New players. New scheme. New era.

The 2025 season marks a turning of the page — and if Vrabel’s plan works, the first step in the Patriots’ return to relevance.