Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

MNF long play prop: Targeting the Rams' secondary

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 10/3/22

Just like that it's primetime again in the NFL, and around here that has meant good things. We are 8-1 on long play props on Thursday and Monday Night Football up to this point. Time to keep the train rolling with a Niners receiver tonight.

Brandon Aiyuk over 21.5 long reception (-114 FD)

Los Angeles has allowed eight passes of 20+ yards, which is admittedly one of the lower marks in the league through three weeks. However, there's been a clear vulnerability to the wide receiver position, with all eight of those 20+ yard catches coming from WRs. That's tied for the sixth-highest mark in the NFL, and considering the Rams allowed the ninth most explosive plays last season, this is a defense we can target.

In comes Brandon Aiyuk, who has a 20+ yard catch in each game so far this season and tops this team in aDOT at 12.7.

It's worth noting that the two times Aiyuk has gone over this 21.5 number this year, Trey Lance was throwing the ball. Jimmy Garoppolo is back, but considering the familiarity that Aiyuk and Garoppolo have built, it's not a concern to me.

Last year, 28.6% of Aiyuk's catches went for 20+ yards, the ninth-highest mark in the NFL among qualifying receivers (min. 30 targets).

Aiyuk has a 22+ yard catch in 11 of his last 17 games, and in three games against the Rams last year, Aiyuk finished with a long catch of 21, 31 and 31.

It's looking like a good spot, especially with George Kittle back. The Los Angeles defense is sure to begin their focus on Deebo Samuel and Kittle, giving Aiyuk the one-on-one matchups to deliver us a big play on Monday night.

Let's finish Week 4 strong!

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