'MNF' picks: Here's a Plan A ... and an alternative

Monday's NFL game, on paper, has the potential to bring absolute fireworks on both ends. The issue, at its core, is the uncertainty surrounding both starting QBs. Both are questionable, and we may not know about their status until far closer to game time.

We have a duty here to serve you up content in a timely manner, and we've done our due diligence on this game. However, we recommend you wait until Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith's playing status is confirmed. As of this writing, it seems Hurts is more likely to play while Smith is a long shot.

Two MNF plays, though one requires patience

Bet this if Hurts and/or Smith play

As long as we can have at least one of these starting QBs in, we'll feel good attacking this game aggressively, like so:

• DK Metcalf 100+ yards
• Metcalf TD
• A.J. Brown 100+ yards
• Brown TD

This one is truly quite simple, and we expect this to be a popular choice throughout the day between the two former college teammates. Both secondaries have major flaws that have proven to be a weekly vulnerability. 

Both defenses are inside the top 10 for most 20+ yard passes allowed and passing yards per game, and each team has also been extremely generous to wide receiver production, ranking among the best targets for WR receptions and touchdowns.

Why not opt for the top outside receivers, who happen to have quite the explosive nature to their game?

This play comes in at +2800 on DraftKings. Be sure to go light on it, but it's a fun way to attack these weak defenses.

Bet this no matter what: Over 45 points 

We did wrestle with how to attack this game. Is it A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf? DeVonta Smith and Tyler Lockett? Or could Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Dallas Goedert be in for the big games?

Why not just remove the need to get the players right for a moment and simply load up points like we expect to see tonight?

Again, both secondaries have been horrible, and that should open things up for these offenses. Philly is 7-6 to the over and Seattle is 6-7, and relative to the rest of the NFL (14 teams going under at a 65% rate or better), those trends suggest touchdowns are coming.

In the news ...

NFL Week 15 sees Bills make a statement, and playoff races are going to come down to the wire — The headlining game of the weekend slate in the NFL had to be Buffalo Bills throttling the Dallas Cowboys, 31-10. The win moves Buffalo to 8-6, and while the Bills are not yet secured in a top-seven seed, few would argue they look like one of the best teams in the AFC. We grabbed them to win the Super Bowl at 20-1 last week. Don't be shy in hopping on now, as they're currently 12-1. 

Elsewhere, big wins were secured for the Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions on Saturday. If the season ended today (it doesn't), both the Bengals and Colts would be in the playoffs. They'll need to fight off the Houston Texans and aforementioned Bills, who are also both 8-6, and we still have the Broncos and Steelers lurking. The Colts are -125 to make the playoffs, but the Bengals are currently +210.

In the NFC, San Francisco continues to cruise with a big win over Arizona, while the Buccaneers took control of the NFC South with a comfortable win over the Packers and a subsequent loss by the Falcons to the Panthers. The Vikings, Rams and Saints are fighting for two spots, all at 7-7, and Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay remain in the mix. Sportsbooks are most confident in the Rams (-125) and Buccaneers (-350) securing NFC playoff spots over the next few weeks.

NFL MVP race heating up — After the blowout loss to the Bills, MVP favorite Dak Prescott's odds took a big hit, down to +450 after being +125 a week ago. It goes to show how volatile this award market truly is. Brock Purdy is the current favorite at -190, and consider us in the camp of not understanding why that is. Purdy isn't even the most valuable player on his own team, something he said himself when discussing running back Christian McCaffrey. CMC is currently +1200 to win MVP, which seems worth a sprinkle.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.