New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers: Stuckey's predictions, odds, preview for 'Monday Night Football'

• Giants vs. Steelers spread: Steelers -6
• Giants vs. Steelers over/under: 36.5 points
• Giants vs. Steelers moneyline: Steelers -275, Giants +225
• Giants vs. Steelers pick: Giants +6

My Steelers vs. Giants best bet is on the Giants to cover the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

I like the Giants at +6 or better on Monday Night Football. There are a few trends that I’ll get into later that say this is a spot to back New York and fade Mike Tomlin.

Moneyline

I have no bet on any moneylines in this one. I’m happy to take the points with the Giants.

Over/Under

I am also passing on the total in Giants vs. Steelers.

My pick: Giants +6

New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL 'Monday Night Football' Preview

I’m still not sold on the move to Russell Wilson at quarterback being a net positive. He hit a bunch of deep shots against a shorthanded Jets secondary last week, but I’m not sure that’s a sustainable model moving forward, especially this week against a Giants defense that does an adequate job of keeping everything in front of them (ranking 12th in Explosive Pass Defense). Wilson basically can’t throw over the middle of the field anymore, and I think the Steelers will really miss Justin Fields’ superior ability to create with his legs as the season progresses.

Regarding this specific matchup, the Giants have struggled against the run, but the Steelers haven’t been particularly efficient in that regard. More importantly, Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been ravaged by injury, which isn’t ideal against a ferocious Giants defensive line. If rookie center Zach Frazier, who has been excellent so far this season, can’t suit up on Monday night after not practicing Friday, that could prove fatal against one of the league’s best interior linemen in Dexter Lawrence. Pressure up the middle could completely neuter Russ and this Steelers offense.

On the other side of the ball, not having Andrew Thomas will once again be a major concern for the Giants, but they’ve at least had one game under their belt without him. I trust Brian Daboll to make some key adjustments after last week’s disaster ahead of a matchup against one of the league’s best pass rushes.

I don’t have much confidence in this Giants offense, but this is just too many points to pass up with points expected to come at a premium and I project the spread closer to 4-4.5. You want to fade this Steelers team when they need to win by a noteworthy margin, which is similar to other Tomlin teams in recent seasons. This just sets up as a great buy-low, sell-high spot on the Giants, who seem to perform at their best on the road as an underdog under Daniel Jones.

Here are a few trends that back up the Tomlin fade spot and why it might be a good time to buy low on the Giants as a road ‘dog:

• Mike Tomlin as a favorite of more than a field goal: 57-73-1 ATS (43.8%), including 37-49-1 (43%) against opponents that don’t have a winning record.
• Daniel Jones is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) as a road underdog, including 16-6 (72.7%) when catching over a field goal, covering by 2.5 points per game.
• The Giants lost 28-3 last week against the Eagles. Since 2005, underdogs that scored fewer than 10 points the week prior have gone 346-275-15 ATS (55.7%) and 125-87-8 (59%) after scoring 3 or fewer, including 76-52-4 (59.4%) following a loss of more than three touchdowns.

Tomlin is generally a cash cow in hype spots vs. good teams, but his teams can come out a bit flat against inferior opponents. This is also a Steelers offense that I’m not running to the window to back as a sizable favorite, especially in a game with a total of 36.5.

Give me the Giants on the road to keep this close.

Pick: Giants +6

Betting Trends

• 80% of bets and 81% of the money are on the Steelers to cover the spread.
• 98% of bets and 99% of the money on the moneyline are on the Steelers to win outright.
• 88% of bets and 65% of the money are on the over.

How to Watch Monday Night Football: Time, Channel, Streaming

Steelers vs. Giants is scheduled for a, 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh tonight. The game will be broadcast live by ESPN and is streaming on ESPN+.