San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13). Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

NFC Championship bets: Two player props for Lions-49ers

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Jan 26, 2024 12:16 PM ET

The second game on Sunday will be the Detroit Lions taking on the San Francisco 49ers, and with an over/under set at 51 points, the expectation is offense in this one. We follow that lead and load up a pair of props on both ends focused on the passing games.

Brock Purdy over 274.5 passing yards (-110 FanDuel)

This one slightly pains me, as I am certainly in the camp of not believing Brock Purdy is anything special, but such is the bias you need to leave at the door sometimes in the player prop market.

Purdy is facing a Detroit secondary that has allowed seven straight QBs to go over their passing yards prop, allowing a mammoth 373.6 passing yards per game over their past five games. After hearing that number, it may be redundant to mention that the Lions defense is allowing the most 20+ yard passes per game, the third-most yards per pass and the sixth-most passing yards per game this year. Whoops, I did it anyway.

Purdy has been far more productive at home, averaging 302.6 yards per game in eight games, going over this total five times. Even if Deebo Samuel can't go (he's progressing well), I'm not too worried, as Purdy put up 365 yards the last time he played without Samuel.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 84.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPN)

I bet on Amon-Ra St. Brown last week, to failure, but I'm giving him a chance to bounce back as the clear top passing option for this offense.

San Francisco has allowed the fifth-most receptions per game to WRs this year, seeing plenty of big games from receives who operate primarily out of the slot. Now it's St. Brown's turn, and considering he's averaging 10+ targets per game, it's a pretty good bet to expect Jared Goff to look his way early and often.

St. Brown has a 7.5 receptions line that is priced slightly to the under. If we project 7+ catches, a fair assumption given he's hit that number in five of his last six games, his yards look all the better.

He's over this total in nine of the 11 games in which he's hauled in 7+ receptions this year, averaging 109.5 yards per game. The two misses were last week and a mid-November game, both of which he ended with 77 on the dot, if you wanted to move him down to a 75+ alternate line in a parlay.

Enjoy the action this weekend!

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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