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NFL best bets: Week 6 'Beat the Line' moves
We went 3-0 in creating closing line value with our Week 5 "Beat the Line" plays, but we unfortunately weren't rewarded for our efforts. The Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens under (40.5 down to 38.5) was an easy winner, but the Patriots moneyline (-116 up to -130) and the Los Angeles Rams-Philadelphia Eagles over (49.5 up to 50.5) didn't exactly work out.
It's still been a successful season thus far, and we have to trust that CLV will prove profitable in the long run. Let's keep it rolling with three early picks for Week 6 that should create CLV by Sunday afternoon.
2023 record: 8-3-4 CLV, 10-4-1 ATS
Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers
Look, I know no one wants to bet against the 49ers right now. It's scary to fade the best team in the NFL that's also 4-1 against the spread, but this is the time to do it.
The 49ers have already played three teams this season that rank 26th or worse in defense DVOA. The Browns, though, have the best defense in the NFL by a wide margin, according to DVOA. Cleveland ranks No. 1 in the league in first downs allowed per game, third-down conversion percentage and passing yards allowed per game.
The Browns are also coming off a bye, while the 49ers have to fly across the country for a 10 a.m. West Coast time kick. This spread should close closer to +4.
The bet to make: Browns +5 (-110 DraftKings)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Joe Burrow is back, folks.
After a brutal start to the season for the Bengals QB, Burrow finally looked like his old self in Week 5. He lit up the Cardinals defense for 317 yards on 78.7 percent passing and led the Bengals to a season-high 34 points. Now he gets to face a Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.
The Seahawks, after a 13-point stinker against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, have put up 32.7 points per game over their last three games. Seattle is coming off a bye week, and Kenneth Walker should have a field day against a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per rush allowed. This feels like a shootout, so a total of 46 is too low.
The bet to make: Over 46 (-110 FanDuel)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts continue to be disrespected in the betting market. Indianapolis was a home underdog to the Tennessee Titans in Week 5, and it won outright as a dog for the third time this season. The Colts can make it a fourth in Week 6.
The Jaguars, who spent the last two weeks in London, have to travel back to the United States and play right away without a bye. More often than not, teams that return from London games and play the next week as a favorite do not perform well. Add in the fact that this is a massive divisional game against a Colts team that's hitting its stride offensively.
Anthony Richardson will miss some time after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 5, but this offense doesn't fall off at all with Gardner Minshew under center. This spread should be closer to 3.5.
The bet to make: Colts +4.5 (-110 DK)
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