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NFL Draft bets: NFC South teams' first pick odds
The NFL Draft is here, and we're rolling through each division and each team to see the odds on which position they grab first. The NFC South is an interesting study, a division that does feel up for grabs.
Carolina is not offered here, as it's a foregone conclusion at this point that they will be taking quarterback Bryce Young first overall. That leaves three teams to dig into.
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Atlanta Falcons, pick No. 8
- Defensive lineman (-135)
- Running back (+200)
- Cornerback (+550)
- Quarterback (+550)
This is an interesting draft for Atlanta. It appears they're going to give last year's third round pick Desmond Ridder a chance to be the guy at QB, so while they may be in a good spot to take one of these passers, it seems unlikely.
We also have a hard time buying that Atlanta would take Bijan Robinson at No. 8, making the odds at running back curious.
To us, defensive lineman is the clear choice. Mock drafts have consistently projected a defensive lineman to Atlanta, and there are no shortages of options at this number. Some insiders have suggested that Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith could be a fit here. Atlanta feels a year or two away from seriously contending in the NFC, so it feels wise to invest in the defensive line.
The Falcons had the second-fewest sacks last season, finishing with only 21 total.
The pick: Defensive lineman (-135)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pick No. 19
- Offensive lineman (+150)
- Defensive lineman (+300)
- Linebacker (+400)
- Quarterback (+600)
The Buccaneers enter 2023 without Tom Brady, and what's left is uninspiring: Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Unfortunately for Tampa, winning the division cost them a chance to be in a good spot to nab one of these young QB prospects. While we'd say QB is by far this team's biggest need, it seems unlikely.
We turn then to the offensive line. It was a serious issue in 2022, and figures to remain so unless the Buccaneers invest some capital into replenishing the pipeline. There isn't much here in terms of long-term commitments. Tackle Tristan Wirfs is in his final year of his rookie deal, though he will likely have his fifth-year option picked up.
As the Buccaneers tread water and figure out where to go next at quarterback, we'll bet they invest in future success of whoever it is taking snaps in 2024 and beyond. There should be some quality OL options at this juncture in the draft.
The pick: Offensive lineman (+150)
New Orleans Saints, pick No. 29
- Defensive lineman (+105)
- Offensive lineman (+200)
- Wide receiver (+600)
- Tight end (+750)
The Saints brought Derek Carr in this offseason, and will likely be looking to milk the most out of him while he still has quality years in him.
Thus, it makes sense to see three positional groups inside the top-four be on the offensive end.
We're loving the value on tight end here at +750. New Orleans could use a better weapon at the position, and Carr certainly will push for someone after the success he had with Darren Waller.
At this point in the draft, there are some extremely intriguing options at tight end. The two top prospects are likely to be gone, but Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave are both huge athletic specimens that could become incredibly value out of the tight end position.
The NFC South feels like the most wide-open division in football, and the move to acquire Carr indicates a win-now mood for New Orleans. We'll opt for a pass-catcher here.
The pick: Tight end (+750)
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