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NFL Draft betting: Plus-value picks, part 3

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated Apr 26, 2023 3:18 PM ET

The NFL Draft is finally upon us. Quarterback Will Levis seems to be rising and even though I said bet against it, there is some buzz for Hendon Hooker getting into the first round. I am not sure that is the biggest wild card out there but now I am looking for some bets that could be affected by this kind of reversal.

Here are some wagers that caught my eye. Remember, if you are betting on the draft you are probably taking a portfolio approach so you need some bigger payoffs, too.

Big Ten Under 8.5 Players Drafted (+240)

This one caught my eye because of that sweet payoff. In a lot of mock drafts I see only eight players off the board from the Big Ten and if Hooker sneaks up into the first round that takes someone's slot. In case you didn't know, Hooker played for the Tennessee Volunteers out of the SEC. Another name that is also gathering some interest is Jahmyr Gibbs, the running back from Alabama, yet another SEC program. There is little buzz for a Big Ten player that might be overdrafted into the first round that I have seen.

New England Patriots to Pick a QB +350

Young QBs have a shorter leash than ever in the NFL. Just look at the experiences of Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson, and even Baker Mayfield. There is way too much noise about what is going on with the Patriots and their QB Mac Jones. Jones is never going to be elite, but it also seems like he may have worn out his welcome. I can totally see a trade that makes it obvious New England is going in a different direction and with Hendon Hooker buzzing, maybe the Pats are a spot. New England probably needs to overhaul their entire offense, why not start "at the top". This is 4th on the odds table for New England, which is why the payoff is so good.

Under 2 Tight Ends +200

This is another case where if players are sneaking up, then someone is going down. There are just a couple of tight ends that teams feel can make a real impact coming out of this draft, Michael Mayer from Notre Dame and Dustin Kincaid out of Utah. That is actually more than usual, but lately I am not seeing a lot of love for Kincaid, who looks like a fallback player for teams not getting who they really wanted. At this price, I think there is value there. Again. Hooker is taking somebody's spot.

Matt Wiesenfeld

Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball

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