NFL futures bets: 2023 AFC South Division win totals

Indianapolis Colts - 6.5
Over -135 / Under +115

The Colts have been trying to figure things out at quarterback ever since Andrew Luck's unexpected retirement. This franchise has been up and down over the last few seasons. I am not sure they have it turned around just yet though. 

Indy hopes it hit rock bottom last season and that they are now back on the way up. They did the predictable thing in plucking off the staff of the Philadelphia Eagles and took a big swing in drafting QB Anthony Richardson, a raw toolsy athlete. If he is competent, you can see this team making a huge jump this season. The defense is solid and there are playmakers to work with. If he isn't, they could be the worst team in the league. That is a big range and I am surprised the pricing is such that the over is the expected results. 

2023 Indianapolis Colts schedule analysis

The Colts' schedule is similar to Houston's above. It is not that daunting at any one stage and if they are able to get things on track with a new coach and new QB quickly they could definitely enjoy a significant bump. Similar to the above, that is a lot to ask for and my inclination is to be less than optimistic. Not in terms of whether the right pieces are in place, but whether they can create a fast impact. 

I am not seeing seven wins on this schedule. The one question is which team, Houston or Indy is going to be better this season. If one is better to the extent that they take both games, there is a chance but I am still not seeing it. As a result, the Under is great value.

Betting: Under 6.5 (+115)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 9.5
Over -135 / Under +115

The Jags took a major leap last year. It is amazing what competent coaching can do. With QB Trevor Lawrence looking like the real deal, it is easy to be optimistic. 

Jacksonville had a very strong season last year. It is always hard to take the next step though, even when the players still have room to grow. Right now, you can see that the market expectations are such that they would build on last year. They are the favorite to take the division and if that happens 10 wins seems pretty likely. I am not keen to lock up my money for so long with that limited payoff though. 

2023 Jacksonville Jaguars schedule analysis

The success of last year has made this schedule a little more daunting but thanks to their division there are a number of gimme games as well. The best thing about the schedule might be that there is no one stretch where they are likely to get beat up. There is an opportunity to get off to a fast start too, they should at least be 3-1 at the end of September. 

This year is going to be more challenging than last, but the team should be better too. When I review the schedule I am usually landing on 11 wins so there is some wiggle room there even if the value with the payoff is not great. I like the over, I am not expecting regression.

Betting: Over 9.5 (-135)

Tennessee Titans - 7.5
Over +110 / Under -130

The Titans have been very consistent under head coach Mike Vrabel. However, it feels like things are trending in the wrong direction organizationally. The win total and pricing is saying that too. 

Tennessee won just seven games last season but that was the first time they had done that in a while - it was the worst season of Vrabel's tenure. Injuries definitely contributed to that, but now there is a lack of clarity about how they want to move forward. They have already drafted the QB of the future but it remains to be seen when they might pull the chute. The under looks likely but at these prices, there is not much value there though. 

2023 Tennessee Titans schedule analysis

With Tennessee, the question lurking over this assessment is at what point might they turn their QB of the future into the QB of the present. I think it could be sooner than people think because an 0-4 start is a real possibility thanks to a difficult first month of the schedule. Even 0-6 is not too crazy to think about. If/When they hand the ball to a rookie signal caller there is not a ton of difference between the Titans and the Colts and Texans on the field and they might be tanking at that point. Off it, they still have an advantage though. 

If you can't tell I am down on this division other than Jacksonville. By the end of the season, we may not be sure who the worst team is because there is so much competition. This is an under play for me as well. 

Betting: Under 7.5 (-130)