NFL futures bets: 2023 NFC South Division win totals

Atlanta Falcons 8.5
Over +115/Under -135

The Falcons finished last year 7-10, and it appears they'll be trotting out second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder as their starting passer this season. Taylor Heinicke is also in the fold as a capable backup, but it very much seems as if the Falcons are heading into this season with a win-win attitude.

Ideally, Atlanta sees one of two outcomes: Ridder showing he's the guy and leading them to a quality season around .500 or better, or a fantastic failure by the young passer, which would conceivably put them in a position to draft a solution in 2024.

2023 Atlanta Falcons schedule analysis

They've invested heavily on the offensive side of the ball in the past few drafts, selecting Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson in successive years, and that is a promising young core. Unfortunately, we're not sold on either the defense or the offensive line, which are sort of important places to have quality players stationed. Even with the reasonable schedule these NFC South teams are drawing, we're fading the Falcons this season. 8.5 seems a tad mis-priced.

Betting: Under 8.5 wins (-135)

Carolina Panthers 7.5
Over -135/Under +115

Carolina also went 7-10 last year thanks to a late-season surge that saw them win six of their final nine games. There are plenty of changes coming to the Panthers this season. Frank Reich is in town as the new head coach, bringing in some promising offensive coaches to his staff: Thomas Brown and Josh McCown.

The headlining move was of course Carolina moving up to the top pick in the draft and selecting 2021 Heisman-winning QB, Bryce Young. We can remark on Young's size all we want, but the fact of the matter is that he produced at the premier school in the nation, and as the top pick, expectations are an immediate impact from the rookie QB.

2023 Carolina Panthers schedule analysis

Put us in the camp of believers of Bryce Young, but unfortunately the Panthers gave up the player that could have helped transition Young to the NFL best: WR DJ Moore. Currently, Young's pass catchers consist of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Terrace Marshall. We're not loving that group, and there might be some growing pains here.

The Panthers seem primed to drop games to the Seahawks, Vikings, Lions, Dolphins, Cowboys and Jaguars, and we're not so sure how many other games they'll really be favored in.

Betting: Under 7.5 wins (+115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5
Over +110/Under -130

Tom Brady is gone, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have made the playoffs in three straight seasons are no more. The Bucs went just 8-9 even with Brady at the helm, and turn the offense over to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.

It doesn't seem crazy to think a significant step back is coming for the Bucs, and while impact players remain in the form of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tristan Wirfs and a loaded defense, quarterback is the most important position on the field.

2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers schedule analysis

However, as we look through the depth chart with blinders at QB, it's a talented roster, and certainly can rival the other three in this division. The Bucs certainly have some tough games on the schedule, namely Philadelphia, Buffalo and San Francisco, but given the parity in the NFC South, we project some wins coming for Tampa Bay.

Betting: Over 6.5 wins (+110)