NFL player prop bets for AFC and NFC championships and beyond

Kansas City is expected to get hit with a cold rain Friday night into Saturday morning, which — depending how low the mercury drops this weekend — could make for either a sloppy track or frozen tundra come Sunday, no matter how many heating coils lay underneath Arrowhead Stadium. With Tom Brady's experience playing in cold weather, give me the Patriots (+3) to advance to the Super Bowl.

The forecast for New Orleans doesn't matter because — for better, for worse — the NFC championship is being played inside a dome with regulated temperatures hovering around a cozy 68 degrees. I like the Rams to cover +3.5 but the Saints to march on over to Atlanta.

Odds: Mahomes (+195) | Brees (+225) | Brady (+325) | Goff (+350)

Over the past three games, the Saints, Patriots and Rams have all averaged fewer than 236 pass yards per game, while the Chiefs posted 276 PYPG. Los Angeles, which averaged 276 pass yards per game on the season, has averaged just 200 pass yards per game during that stretch. As much as I believe Mahomes can sling it with the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the wintry conditions in Kansas City are not optimal for him to lead the pack this weekend. With a solid receiving corps lining up against a below-average secondary indoor, Goff could shock this prop bet world.

The bet: Jared Goff

Favorites: Michael Thomas (+200) | Tyreek Hill (+400) | Travis Kelce (+450) 

Michael Thomas caught 12 of 16 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown last weekend. Pro Football Focus said his matchup against the Rams defensive secondary — a combination of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib — is the second-most favorable of the weekend. It's hard to make a case for the field with the chilly conditions in Kansas City, Mahomes' inexperience in cold weather and with the way the Rams receiving corps splinter targets, receptions and yardage. Brees and Thomas are the Saints one-two passing game punch with Kamara relieving him at times. I'm good with the pick at 2-to-1.

The pick: Thomas

Favorites: Todd Gurley (+275) | Sony Michel (+300) | Damien Williams (+400) | Alvin Kamara (+400)

With New Orleans missing defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins due to a season-ending injury last weekend, Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson are about to eat very well. Not only was Rankins an elite pass rusher, with eight sacks this season, but he also was one of the Saints top run stoppers. Gurley and Anderson just embarrassed the Cowboys rush defense, which ranked seventh at stopping the run during the regular season. While the Saints ranked second against the rush, that was WITH Rankins healthy. At nearly 3-to-1 odds that Gurley leads all running backs in rushing yards this weekend, I think an interesting hedge bet is that Anderson keeps on thriving. The veteran running back has averaged nearly 141 rush yards per game the past three weeks. He's nearly 10-to-1 to lead running backs in rush yards this weekend. Hedge Gurley with C.J.A.

Pick: Gurley and Anderson (+975)

Odds: Over 3 (-115) | Under 3 (-125)

We have two veteran and two novice playoff quarterbacks competing in this weekend's conference championships. Granted, the veteran kickers I placed faith in this time last week let me down, as Adam Vinatieri missed some critical attempts. Perhaps experience is overrated in the playoffs?

The Patriots and Rams defense averaged 1.1 interceptions per game this season, while the Chiefs and Saints average 0.9 and 0.8 INT-PG, respectively. The conditions in Kansas City aren't optimal for an air show, which leads me to think the UNDER is the play here. 

The bet: Under

Odds: Mahomes and Williams (-150) | Brady and Michel (+110)

Just because the "Patriots to the Super Bowl" pick is cliche and boring to some doesn't mean Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will forget how to put New England in the best possible position to win Sunday night at Arrowhead. 

The duo have proved time and time again that their offensive scheme can beat opponents via death by a thousand cuts. This is why Brady and Michel are such an intriguing pick. With the thought being that in below-freezing temperatures, tempo will be slowed and that New England will want to control the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes from finding a rhythm, the Patriots offensive line needs to beat Kansas City's and Michel needs to attack those running lanes as he did against the Chargers. This is possible in what I expected will be a 25-plus touch game for the rookie running back.

The Bet: Brady and Michel

Odds: Yes (+375) | No (-650)

Saints head coach Sean Payton loves to use Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill whenever possible. The back-up quarterback and gadget player converted a fake punt just last weekend against the Eagles. He's dangerous because he can pass or use his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame to bowl defenders over. On the flip side, the Rams feature Johnny Hekker who is arguably one of the league's top passing punters. With NFL squads going for it on fourth down so often around the middle of the field, the odds have never been better for fake punts to occur on a weekly basis.

The pick: Yes

Favorites: Gurley (-130) | Kamara (-155) | Michael Thomas (-140)

The favorites to score during the NFC championship game make a lot of sense but come with heavy price tags. You'd have to risk $140 to win $100 that Michael Thomas finds the end zone or $155 to win $100 if you think Alvin Kamara hits pay dirt. Why not go against the grain and find some value where the return is higher than the risk? Former Saints receiver Brandin Cooks carved up his former team in Round 1 to the tune of six receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. He may not post 100-plus yards, but at +125, I like him to add six to the scoreboard.

Pick: Brandin Cooks (+125)

Odds: Over 74.5 (-108) | Under 74.5 (-118)

The Rams possess so many above-average skill position players, Woods sometimes gets lost in the mix. He averaged 76.2 receiving yards per game during the regular season and caught six passes for 69 yards last weekend. He's as consistent as they come and when New Orleans defensive backs start to cheat up to stop Gurley and Anderson, watch Goff work the ball to Woods in space. According to Pro Football Focus, Woods has the most favorable matchup against opposing cornerback P.J. Williams.

The bet: OVER

Will White record 50+ receiving yards AND will the Patriots win against the Chiefs

Odds: Yes (+360)

James White caught 15 passes on 17 targets for 97 yards against the Chargers last weekend. He averaged 47 receiving yards per game during the regular season. As much as I hate to sound like a broken record, the weather conditions and game flow will impact how the Patriots prepare to upset the Chiefs on their home turf. Coach Bill Belichick has used White in a lead role during the postseason before, and it wouldn't shock me to see him go back to the well again this Sunday.

The bet: Yes

Odds: Williams (+220) | Michel (+270) | Same Amount (-105)

New England does NOT want to get into a track meet with the Chiefs defense. The Pats want long drives that chew up as much clock as possible, like they did against the Chargers last weekend. This means a heavy diet of James White and Sony Michel. When New England gets inside the Chiefs 10-yard line, watch for the rookie to finish the drive.

The bet: Michel