NFL player prop bets for Week 12 and beyond

Not only did the New Orleans Saints defense force four Falcons turnovers Thanksgiving night, but Drew Brees' four touchdown passes were to household names Tommylee Lewis, Austin Carr, Dan Arnold, and Keith Kirkwood. When Pro Bowlers Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and Michael Thomas are held without a touchdown and the Saints still win by 14 points, how can other teams compete with the NFC's best team? Short answer: they can't.

Sean Payton's job security as Saints head coach appears to be as strong as ever, but not every NFL patriarch is as lucky this holiday season. This is where we'll start our Week 12 NFL prop bet rundown.

Odds: Yes (+155) | No (-220)

It's a classic case of what have you done for us lately ? Remember, McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a Super Bowl back in 2010 and have been competitive for the better part of this decade. However, a 4-5-1 record and third place in the NFC North is not what Green Bay investors expect. It's reached the point where fans have started a petition on Change.org to have McCarthy fired. What it boils down to is what the front office thinks is best for Rodgers as the Packers franchise player. If a change at the top improves the team's chances of competing in the short-term, their quarterback is going to sign off on it. Based on Rodgers' on-the-field body language this season, he's ready for it to be over and a new chapter to begin come 2019.

The Bet: No

Odds: Yes (-130) | No (-110)

Hopkins has scored at least one touchdown in seven out of Houston's 10 games this season with at least one score in five straight. However, the Texans star receiver faces a tough matchup this week in the Titans Adoree' Jackson. Pro Football Focus typically ranks Hopkins versus his opposing cornerback among the top five most-favorable matchups. This week, he's ranked WR-18th. As a team, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest touchdown passes this season.

The Bet: No

Odds: Yes (+250) | No (-400)

Luck has thrown 3-or-more touchdown passes in seven consecutive games. In order to win this "Yes" prop bet, he must toss 3-or-more against both the Dolphins and Jaguars over the next two weeks. Miami has allowed three-or-more touchdown passes three times this year, while Jacksonville has allowed it to happen only twice, but one of those was when Luck torched their secondary for 285 yards and three scores. I think the streak ends this week as the Dolphins rush defense is the third-worst in the league. Running back Marlon Mack could be in for a huge day and allow Luck some time to rest that rocket arm.

The Bet: No

Odds: Yes (+450) | No (-850)

The Los Angeles Chargers punt team has allowed opposing special teams units to successfully convert fake punts and pick up first downs in back-to-back games. L.A.'s head coach Anthony Lynn says he's making changes to the special teams unit ahead of this weekend's matchup. However, odds are the Cardinals trail by double-digits at some point in this game and if they're around midfield on fourth and manageable, there's a good chance Steve Wilks challenges Lynn's punt return team.

The Bet:  Yes

Odds: Yes (+160) | No (-230)

Ryan's 2018 magic carpet ride has been as bumpy as most imagined. After a strong start to the season, he's tossed five interceptions with no touchdowns his last two times out, which resulted in Jameis Winston "earning" the starting gig once again. Granted, a lot could happen between Week 13 and 17, but at this point, the Buccaneers and NFL know what Fitzpatrick is, while they're still trying to decode Winston's future. It would take an injury to Jameis for Fitz to work his way back into the starting lineup.

The Bet: No

Odds: Over 0.5 (-220) | Under 0.5 (+155)

Winston was initially benched in favor of Fitzpatrick after throwing 10 interceptions his first four starts following an early-season suspension. Even after relieving Fitz last week, Winston tossed another pick while trying to rally Tampa Bay back from three scores down. He's averaging one interception for every 14.9 pass attempts this season. He'll probably throw more than 30 passes against the 49ers. San Francisco ranks 31st with only two defensive interceptions through 10 games. Still, the odds are not on Winston's side this weekend.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 149.5 (+145) | Under 149.5 (-190)

Seattle is averaging 154.3 rush yards per game. Carolina has allowed 70.8 rush yards per game to opposing running backs the last five games. The Seahawks have to travel to Charlotte this week and play in Week 12's early window, which means a 10 a.m. kickoff for the West Coast team.

The Bet: Under

Odds: Over 57.5 (-130) | Under 57.5 (-110)

In his first NFL start, the rookie quarterback rushed 26 times for 119 yards as the Bengals had no answer for the Ravens rush attack. While I don't expect Jackson to rush 20-plus times again, he's not beating the Oakland Raiders with his arm. If he calls his own number 15 times, he'd need to average 3.9 yards per rush to the hit the OVER after averaging 4.6 yards per carry against Cincinnati. This seems like a slam dunk to me.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 1.5 | Under 1.5

The Panthers quarterback has tossed two-or-more touchdown passes in nine of the Panthers' 10 games this season. Seattle's defense has allowed two passing touchdowns in four consecutive games. Newton playing at home with Seattle traveling cross-country is a favorable matchup for him to make it 10-of-11.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 99.5 | Under 99.5

When we last saw the Browns rookie running back, he torched the Falcons for 176 rush yards on 20 carries. Atlanta allows the most fantasy football points to opposing running backs, while the Bengals allow the third-most. This context clue is a terrific guide to projecting Chubb's Week 12 projection as the Browns will want to lean on the run game to control time of possession like the Baltimore Ravens did in their win over Cincinnati last week.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 69.5 | Under 69.5

The Colts lead back has posted the following rush totals over the past month:

Week 11: 61 yards
Week 10: 29
Week 8: 132
Week 7: 126

The Miami Dolphins allow 122.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Compared to how his season started, the Vikings top receiver has posted back-to-back muted performances. Thielen was held to 66 yards on seven receptions by the Bears and 22 yards on four receptions by the Lions his last two times out. When he faced Green Bay back in Week 2, he hauled in 12 receptions for 131 yards with a touchdown. The Packers have allowed 15-or-more receptions to opposing wide receivers — not running backs and tight ends — over the past three games. I like Thielen to bounce back against a Packers team ripe for a knockout blow.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 60.5 | Under 60.5

If the Josh Gordon reclamation project was going to work anywhere, it would be as a member of the New England Patriots. Seven games in, Gordon has meshed nicely with the offense and his rapport with Tom Brady appears to be gaining steam. Gordon was targeted a season-high 12 times in the Patriots loss to the Titans and he's averaged 88 receiving yards per game over the past four. The Jets secondary has allowed the fourth-most fantasy football points to opposing wide receivers this season.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Over 69.5 | Under 69.5

San Francisco's Nick Mullens has targeted his tight end 14 times in his two starts. Last time out, Kittle caught nine passes for 83 yards against the Giants. While they've improved as of late, Tampa Bay has still allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Once again, fantasy football metrics act a guide for Kittle to continue his 2018 dominance as an up-and-coming elite tight end.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: AFC (EVEN) | NFC (-140)

Look at the Saints, Chiefs and Rams offensive production. They currently rank 1-2-3 in points per game, respectively. 

Now, look at the Saints, Chiefs and Rams defensive efficiency. New Orleans has allowed less than 20 points per game over their past eight games, while Kansas City and Los Angeles rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game.

Defense wins championship? Offense? How about offense and defense wins championships. The Saints are loaded.

The Bet: NFC