Yardbarker
NFL Survivor Pool: One of these days?
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Survivor Pool: One of these days?

We are now three weeks into the season and I am an embarrassing 0-3 in this space. Pretty pathetic given we are just trying to pick winners. Apologies!!

This past week I was hot on the Los Angeles Chargers. At the time of the pick, I thought quarterback Justin Herbert would play (supported by the betting line at the time) but as the week progressed it looked unlikely. He did suit up but played poorly in a disaster of a loss, 38-10 against Jacksonville.  

Ugh!

Making picks earlier in the week when injury news can and does change is always tricky but there is still no excuse — for me or the Chargers, who are quickly seeing their season slip away. 

We are going to keep at it though, trying to pick that one team to win each week and observing the Survivor Pool rules of not picking a team that has been picked already.

To refresh, Tennessee, Cincinnati and Los Angeles (Chargers) have been selected so far.

Week 4 Survivor Pick Recommendation

Three weeks into the season and there is only one team that is 0-3. Shockingly, it is the Las Vegas Raiders, not the Chicago Bears or Seattle Seahawks. Still, fading those teams drew my eyes in making the selection from the slate of games for Week 4. Fading Houston was also a strong possibility but they are hosting the Chargers this week so even though they are 0-2-1 they were off the board. 

The Pick:  Detroit Lions

The Lions are the pick this week even though they failed to complete the road upset at Minnesota last week, giving up 14 points in the fourth quarter. You can question the talent on this team, but their effort has been great under coach Dan Campbell, so I feel good for them in a spot where they need to bounce back from a tough defeat. The Lions are hosting Seattle and are 4.5-point favorites at Ford Field, where they are 1-1 this season and really pushed Philadelphia in Week 1.

This play is as much of a fade of Seattle, who has looked really bad the last couple of weeks, including losing to Atlanta at home last week as a small favorite. The Seahawks' secondary is especially banged up and it is not like that unit was elite, to begin with. Look for Detroit to be able to be in control throughout the game. We should not have to sweat it (but what do I know?).

The New York Giants were heavily considered here too, but they are in a bad spot coming off a home loss on Monday Night Football. Short weeks are always something to be worried about, even though playing the Bears helps a lot. Detroit has a couple of gimme games against Chicago but they have to wait until mid-November to visit Soldier Field and host the Bears the second last week of the season, so even though the Lions are far from elite now is a nice time to use them. 


Our Bark Bets sports betting newsletter has the news, picks and analysis smart bettors are using to win. Sign up today!


Matt Wiesenfeld

Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!