NFL Week 10 betting guide, Part 2

As we look ahead to Week 10 in the NFL, we've got you covered with breakdowns, betting looks and predictions for all 14 games on the schedule. We already broke down the first half of the slate in Part 1, so let's dive into Part 2.

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Falcons -3.5
Total: 46

The Saints hit a new low last week in their 23-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers even with Derek Carr back in the lineup. The loss was so bad New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen and traded cornerback Marshon Lattimore shortly after. Chris Olave likely won't suit up this week due to a concussion.

The Falcons are feeling much better about themselves with five wins in their last six games and a healthy NFC South lead. Kirk Cousins, who's thrown for 2,328 yards and 17 touchdowns through nine games, is now a -140 favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. 

Mismatch to exploit: Saints wide receivers vs. uncertainty

Injuries can create value in the betting market due to uncertainty, so if Olave doesn't play, take a shot at the Saints wide receiver at the longest odds to score a touchdown.

Prediction: Falcons 25, Saints 22

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Commanders -2.5
Total: 45

Washington's offense has been incredibly efficient this season, but it runs into problems near the goal line. The Commanders rank 26th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage, which could pose a problem in this matchup.

Why? Well, the Steelers have the best red-zone defense in the league, as they give up a touchdown on just 37.5 percent of RZ drives. Pittsburgh is also fully healthy and coming off its bye week, so it might have the advantage in this matchup.

Mismatch to exploit: Commanders RZ offense vs. Steelers RZ defense

We already mentioned how Pittsburgh's strength on defense matches up with Washington's weakness on offense. Check out Austin Seibert to go over his field goals prop.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Commanders 20

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Chargers -7.5
Total: 38.5

The Chargers are starting to let Justin Herbert cook. After running one of the most rush-heavy offenses in the NFL to start the season, Los Angeles is now airing it out to Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Herbert is averaging 33.0 pass attempts and 286.8 passing yards over the last four games.

That's why this is such an interesting matchup because the Titans give up the fewest yards per pass in the NFL. The issue for Tennessee is its offense, which ranks 29th in EPA per play. The Titans haven't announced whether Will Levis or Mason Rudolph will get the start.

Mismatch to exploit: Titans offense vs. Chargers defense

The Chargers defense ranks first in points per game and EPA per play and second in success rate, and the Titans can't find any consistency with their rotating quarterback room. Take a look at Tennessee's team total under.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Titans 13

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Eagles -7
Total: 43

This isn't the NFC East showdown we expected heading into the season. The Cowboys are 3-5, Cooper Rush will be filling in for an injured Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons may not be able to suit up, either. If you're wondering why the spread is so high, that's the answer.

As for the Eagles, Vic Fangio's defense is really starting to hum. Philly's defense ranks first in the NFL in success rate and second in dropback EPA per play since the Week 5 bye. Pair that with the Eagles' explosive offense, and they're starting to look like a Super Bowl contender again.

Mismatch to exploit: Cowboys injuries vs. overreaction

Oddsmakers tend to overreact to impactful injuries, but Cooper Rush is 5-1 as a starter in his career. Let bettors by this spread up as much as possible and take the Cowboys to cover. 

Prediction: Eagles 21, Cowboys 17

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, Nov. 10, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Jets -1
Total: 46.5

This is a massive game for the Jets' playoff chances. With a win, New York's playoff chances will improve to 36 percent. They will drop to 17 percent with a loss. The Jets are hoping Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson can stay hot after putting up 181 combined yards and three touchdowns last week against the Houston Texans. 

It won't be an easy win against a Cardinals team riding a three-game winning streak. Arizona dismantled the Chicago Bears last week, but this is a much tougher matchup against a veteran quarterback who can dissect coverages.

Mismatch to exploit: Sauce Gardner vs. Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison has gone under 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and here comes Gardner to shut him down. Take a look at his under receiving yards. 

Prediction: Jets 26, Cardinals 24

Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans

Sunday, Nov. 10, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Lions -3.5
Total: 48.5

This would be a fantastic "Sunday Night Football" matchup if not for Houston's injury-plagued roster. Stefon Diggs is out for the season, Nico Collins may not be able to return this week, Will Anderson hasn't practiced and four more defensive starters and two starting offensive linemen are questionable. Woof. 

The Lions are healthy as can be with the exception of Aidan Hutchinson, but they were able to replace him with Za'Darius Smith at the trade deadline. Detroit also gets Jameson Williams back from his suspension this week.

Mismatch to exploit: Tank Dell vs. Lions secondary 

Dell put up 126 yards against the Jets last week with Diggs and Collins out. If Collins misses this game, Dell should feast against a Detroit secondary that's given up monster games to wide receivers all year.

Prediction: Lions 27, Texans 20

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, Nov. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Rams -1
Total: 50

The Dolphins have looked much better offensively since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the field, as they've put up 27 points in back-to-back weeks. The issue has been the defense, which ranks last in EPA per play and 30th in success rate in that span. 

The Rams are playing their best football of the season with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup. Nacua did miss most of last week's overtime win against the Seattle Seahawks after getting ejected for throwing a punch, but he should be fully healthy for the first time since Week 1.

Mismatch to exploit: Tyreek Hill vs. Rams secondary

Fantasy managers have been begging for Hill's breakout game, and this could be it. The Rams gave up 296 combined yards to Justin Jefferson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba over the last two weeks, so check out some alternate overs on Hill.

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Rams 27