NFL Week 11 Mock Contest

There are not a lot of big spreads this week, just three games where the favorite is expected to win by more than a TD. Baltimore leads with a whopping -13 against Carolina, and there is a chance I might even take it.

Week 1 Record: 2-3
Week 2 Record: 3-2
Week 3 Record: 2-3
Week 4 Record: 4-1
Week 5 Record: 3-2
Week 6 Record: 1-4
Week 7 Record: 3-2
Week 8 Record: 3-2
Week 9 Record: 3-1-1

Week 10 Record: 4-1
Combined Record: 28-21-1

Week 10 in Review

Detroit Lions +3 (win) — Detroit got the outright win against Chicago. That is always a good outcome when you take the points.  

Miami Dolphins -3.5  (win) — The Miami offense was humming last week so there was never really much to worry about here.  

Tennessee -2.5 (win) — Tennessee seems to never win by a lot but we didn't need them to.  

New Orleans Saints -1.5 (loss) — This one was a fail. New Orleans is a little messy right now.  

New York Giants -5.5 (win) — This one might not have looked great in the stats, but New York won by more than enough even with the dead number.  

Week 11 Picks (Finally)

Washington Commanders -3 (at Houston)

Admittedly pulling from the Survivor article, but we are on a great run over there. This line has come down because there is some belief that Washington is overvalued after beating Philadelphia, and Houston is undervalued because they only have 1 win. Both of those things are probably true, but I am still not getting behind Houston. 

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (at Pittsburgh)

This line has been coming down, helped by the Pittsburgh win last week over a bad New Orleans team. I know a lot of AFC North games are 3-pointers but even with OLB TJ Watt back for Pittsburgh, there is a class difference in this one. Once QB Joe Burrow puts up 24+ points for Cincinnati it is going to be hard for the Steelers to put up enough

Philadelphia Eagles -7 (at Indianapolis)

The Eagles are off their first loss of the season and the Colts are off of their first win with their new coach. I think that creates value on both sides of this one that might have been closer to -10 a week ago. I have a small worry about the Eagles' rush defense but their overall firepower advantage should have them in control of the game. 

New York Giants -3 (vs Detroit)

Detroit has to be a little overvalued after some recent success, right? This is another road spot but against a better team than Chicago. I am not super high on New York overall, but in this one, we just need them to win by a small margin. With their ability to control the time of possession, they can close this one out. 

Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (at Denver)

The Raiders are not having a good season, there is no debate about that. However, they are playing in a lot of close games, they are just missing those critical plays to turn them in their favor. You can argue that Denver has been even worse because they just can't score. It is hard to like a favorite like that, even at home. I don't want to make a habit out of backing road dogs but when the situation fits, you gotta punch it. Classic teaser spot here. 

Went a little more road-heavy than expected this week. I never like that, just playing the lines we are dealt.