NFL Week 14: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Minnesota -3

What you need to know:  Pittsburgh’s no-name defensive line was a major story in the Steelers’ win over Baltimore. Former Raven Chris Wormley had 2.5 sacks, while T.J. Watt had 3.5. Pittsburgh harassed Jackson all game long, and despite a massive time of possession disadvantage, held up long enough for Ben Roethlisberger and the offense to rally. Historically, Pittsburgh and Baltimore have both struggled the week after they play each other, and the short week makes that worse for the Steelers. Minnesota suffered the league’s most humiliating loss in Week 13, and not only was the loss to Detroit an ugly embarrassment, but it also significantly damaged the Vikings’ playoff chances. Minnesota has two games with the Bears remaining, but also dates with the Rams and Packers. This game looms as a must, and therefore the Vikings cannot afford to let Ben Roethlisberger, who led the Steelers to 17 fourth-quarter points against Baltimore, get going the way Jared Goff did.

On the spot: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger.  Rumors are swirling that Roethlisberger has told some in the Steelers’ organization that this is his last year with the team (and presumably in the NFL). If that’s the case, he needs to channel more of what he did in the fourth quarter last week.

Vikings HC Mike Zimmer:  Zimmer is a defensive guy, but the Vikings have lost two of three, and given up at least 29 points in each of those three games. Minnesota is already in trouble where the playoffs are concerned; another porous performance might be their demise.

The pick: Vikings 27 Steelers 20

TV: CBS        Line: Cleveland -2.5

What you need to know:  After a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers, in a game that Baltimore dominated in terms of time of possession, the Ravens have to get back on the road and try to beat a fresh and desperate Browns team that hasn’t played a game since their 16-10 loss to the Ravens two weeks ago. Baltimore needs to figure out what’s wrong with Lamar Jackson; a week after throwing four picks against Cleveland, he had a pass intercepted in the end zone by Pittsburgh, and never looked comfortable throwing the ball. Cleveland is sticking with Baker Mayfield, and when Kevin Stefanski was asked about that subject, seemed puzzled as to why anyone would be wondering about a switch. Either he knows something the rest of us don’t, or he hasn’t actually watched his quarterback play this year. In any event, Mayfield should be as healthy for this game as he can possibly be at this time of year, and with Marlon Humphrey lost for the year, the Browns might be able to take advantage in the passing game.

On the spot: Ravens CB Jimmy Smith.  Smith figures to see a considerable uptick in action now that Humphrey’s season is over. Even with his reputation, the Browns still might try to take shots at him.

Browns QB Baker Mayfield: Mayfield’s performances have been dissected ad nauseam this season, and at this point, it’s put-up-or-shut-up time for the fourth-year passer. Cleveland’s playoff hopes depend on whether or not he delivers.

The pick: Browns 24 Ravens 16

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -8.5

What you need to know:  Jacksonville gave a game effort in trying to rally against the Falcons two weeks ago, and they gave…something other than that against the Rams. The Jaguars were non-competitive for the majority of the game against the Rams and failed to crack 200 yards of offense while surrendering over 400, as well as 37 points. And in a recurring theme this year, Trevor Lawrence failed to do anything particularly impressive, throwing for just 145 yards on 16-of-28 passing. Tennessee got to take a breather after showing some serious cracks, particularly on offense, with Derrick Henry out of the lineup. The Titans will have to hope that the time off yields better play from Ryan Tannehill, who has just 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 73.3 passer rating in four games without Henry. This game should provide a respite for Tennessee, but they have to have it, because a three-game gauntlet of Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami suddenly looks daunting, and the Colts are charging hard in the division.

On the spot: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Nothing else matters for the Jaguars this year, and Lawrence has one touchdown pass in his last five games and has just one game with multiple touchdown passes all season.

Titans S Kevin Byard:  Byard was on the COVID-19 list during the Titans’ bye week, but he should be good to go for this game, and he’s precisely the kind of player who might make Lawrence’s day miserable.

The pick: Titans 20 Jaguars 13

TV: CBS        Line: Kansas City -9.5

What you need to know: The Raiders came up short against Washington and were unable to put many points on the board against a Football Team defense that has continued to more closely resemble what people thought it would be. Now Las Vegas has to avoid falling under .500 for the season, and they’ll have to do so against a Chiefs team that smashed them by 27 points a month ago. To make matters worse for the Raiders, none of the teams left on their schedule is below .500. Kansas City’s defense kept up its suffocating ways against the Broncos, dominating the proceedings in a 22-9 win. Denver did pile up yardage, but most of it came when the game was already well in hand, and the Chiefs were more than happy to trade yards and even points for time off the clock. New England’s seven-game winning streak has captured all the attention in the AFC, but the Chiefs have now won five in a row, and still haven’t consistently looked “back” on offense.

On the spot: Raiders QB Derek Carr.  Carr’s work against the Football Team was underwhelming if anything. His stat line was passable, but Las Vegas needs him to be the best player on the roster; anything less, and the Raiders will struggle mightily down the stretch.

Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman:  There’s Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, but Kansas City desperately needs someone, particularly in the passing game, to emerge as a consistent third option. They drafted Hardman (one touchdown this year) for that purpose, so it’s time he started delivering the goods.

The pick: Chiefs 30 Raiders 17

TV: CBS        Line: New Orleans -5.5

What you need to know:  Taysom Hill is going to attempt to play through a finger injury that clearly limited him in a loss to the Cowboys last week. Hill was able to run the ball effectively against Dallas, so an interesting decision for Sean Payton will involve how many risks he wants to take with his quarterback in the name of productive offensive plays. One thing that should help the Saints is that Alvin Kamara ought to be ready. The Jets started out looking competitive against the Eagles, and then the bottom fell out of their offense in the second half. New York failed to score over the final 30 minutes, and also had no answers for Gardner Minshew, who threw for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns, and also led the Eagles on seven straight scoring drives in the game. New York isn’t good, but they have a chance to make this game interesting, particularly if Hill’s hand hinders him in the passing game.

On the spot: Saints QB Taysom Hill. Hill’s ability to deal effectively with his injured finger is going to be the story of this game, as he’s going to have to resist the temptation to run at the first sign of trouble.

Jets HC Robert Saleh:  Saleh has a chance to pin his defense’s ears back and come after Hill and the Saints. Not only that, but after his offense submitted one good half of work against the Eagles, he’ll have to push the right buttons to get a full game out of them this time around.

The pick: Saints 23 Jets 20

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -4.5

What you need to know:  Dallas got themselves a workmanlike win in New Orleans last week, and suddenly such victories are looking crucial, because Washington is lurking at 6-6, having ripped off four straight wins after looking dead in the water at 2-6. The Cowboys might be catching Washington at exactly the wrong time, too; the Football Team’s defense has surrendered 300 yards or less in four of their last five games. Dak Prescott may have to do most of the heavy lifting. Rumors of Ron Rivera’s team’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Washington rediscovered its defense after the bye week, getting a statement win over the Buccaneers, then churning through three straight opponents, albeit in nail-biting fashion. The real wild card for Washington is Taylor Heinicke, who is an interesting case; he’s good enough to make big throws that win games and inconsistent enough to do maddening things that put Washington at a disadvantage. If he keeps limiting turnovers, Washington should be a threat right until the end of the season.

On the spot: Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs.  If nothing else, Heinicke is a gunslinger who believes he can fit the ball in just about anywhere. That should make this game an interesting one for Diggs, who isn’t shy about trying to make aggressive plays on the ball.

Washington Football Team TE John Bates:  Logan Thomas’ knee injury wasn’t as catastrophic as initially feared, but he’ll still miss time, and Ricky Seals-Jones is banged up. That means that Bates will take on a bigger role; he’s caught 12 of 13 targets, but can he be dynamic down the field?

The pick: Cowboys 23 Washington Football Team 20

TV: FOX        Line: Carolina -2.5

What you need to know:  This game amounts to a playoff eliminator for the Falcons; Carolina already owns one head-to-head win over Atlanta this year. A second would give them a functional two-game lead in a muddled NFC playoff chase. That said, after a feel-good throttling of the Cardinals a month ago, the Panthers have fallen off dramatically on offense, and just fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Last week, Carolina managed just 198 yards of offense, and Cam Newton completed just 5-of-21 passes before being benched. The Falcons’ problems are, as per usual, rooted in their defense. Specifically, their lack of it. Atlanta took a break from getting gashed on the ground and instead lost to the Buccaneers because they couldn’t stop Tom Brady from throwing the ball all over the field. They should get a breather in that regard against the Panthers, but will they be able to stop Newton’s running, which figures to be a significant part of the game plan this week?

On the spot: Falcons QB Matt Ryan.  The Panthers’ strength is their pass defense, but given the fact that Atlanta’s running game has only recently shown signs of life, Ryan’s ability to make plays downfield might be the difference.

Panthers HC Matt Rhule:  Rhule fired Brady in part because the Panthers weren’t running enough for his liking. Given that such a stubborn approach is completely backward in today’s NFL, Rhule is going to take some heat if things don’t turn around.

The pick: Falcons 21 Panthers 16

TV: FOX        Line: Seattle -7.5

What you need to know:  Seattle stopped the bleeding with a much-needed upset win over San Francisco last week, but safety Jamal Adams was lost for the season with shoulder injuries in the process. The task for the Seahawks is simple enough; win out, and hope that 9-8 is good enough for the playoffs in the NFC. Whether or not Seattle is equipped to actually do such a thing is another matter, however, and the answer is probably no. Houston…Houston. What is there to say? Tyrod Taylor is hurt again and may not be able to go, but at this point, it probably makes more sense for the Texans to just play Davis Mills and see if he’s learned anything from his time back on the bench. In any event, like most Texans fans, I’m just yearning for the end of their season.

On the spot: Seahawks S Ryan Neal.  With Adams out, Neal’s playing time figures to increase considerably; if he’s solid in coverage, his lack of dynamic play near the line of scrimmage might not matter.

Texans QB Davis Mills:  Both Taylor and Mills have taken reps in practice this week, but if the Texans have an eye to the future, they’ll go with Mills, which puts the onus on him to perform.

The pick: Seahawks 26 Texans 20

TV: FOX        Line: Denver -8.5

What you need to know:  All hail the Lions, who finally won a football game, thanks to the Vikings playing the worst do-or-die defense imaginable. Detroit’s plethora of close losses suggested that they weren’t actually the worst team in the league, and having a game in the win column furthers that notion. Their reward for the win is dealing with a Broncos team in desperation mode after a loss to Kansas City. Speaking of the Broncos, they were only able to move the ball on the Chiefs towards the end of the game, and could only pay off those drives with one touchdown. Denver’s problem isn’t exactly new; with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, Denver will struggle to make enough big plays down the field to keep defenses honest. That shouldn’t be a problem for this game, but finding some way to manufacture vertical offense would be a major help down the stretch.

On the spot: Lions HC Dan Campbell.  Campbell finally has a win, which, oddly enough, probably secured his job for next season, so what does he have planned for an encore? Continuing to win might not be the best thing for Detroit.

Broncos RB Javonte Williams:  Melvin Gordon’s status for this game is still unknown, so Denver may again need to lean on their hard-running rookie for North Carolina, whose 102 yards were a bright spot against the Chiefs.

The pick: Broncos 24 Lions 17

TV: FOX       Line: Los Angeles -10

What you need to know:  At this juncture, it looks like the Giants will have Mike Glennon at their disposal, or at least, they are optimistic that he will be out of the concussion protocol and ready to start. If he can’t go, Jake Fromm will likely play. Either way, the quarterback situation seems like the least of New York’s worries, given that head coach Joe Judge continues to make baffling, conservative in-game decisions, like his choices to punt three separate times on fourth-and-4 or shorter against Miami. The Chargers are in a potentially tough situation because of COVID protocols. Wide receiver Mike Williams and Chris Harris are both in the protocol as close contacts with Keenan Allen, who tested positive. Both Williams and Harris could still play, as well as Allen, but as of now the status of all three players is up in the air. Los Angeles delivered an impressive win against Cincinnati last Sunday, making the timing of this situation particularly inconvenient.

On the spot: Giants HC Joe Judge. Judge claimed that he would bring an aggressive coaching style to the Giants, but so far New York fans have gotten the exact opposite.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert:  If Herbert is missing both Williams and Allen, the onus will be on him to still deliver productive, consistent offense without his two most productive receiving weapons.

The pick: Chargers 30 Giants 23

TV: CBS        Line: San Francisco -1.5

What you need to know: San Francisco suffered one of the worst losses of any team in the league last week, falling to the Seahawks on the road. The defeat stunted some of the 49ers’ momentum, as the team had begun to look like a dark-horse NFC contender in recent weeks. Now, however, the Niners will have to get a win in a tough environment to hang on to the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC. Speaking of bad losses, Cincinnati took one last week against the Chargers, rallying to cut a 24-0 deficit all the way to 24-22, before sloppy play allowed Los Angeles to walk out with a 41-22 triumph. The Bengals still have a very good chance to win the AFC North, but they can ill-afford a loss here, or next week in Denver. A win would put the heat on Baltimore to handle their business against the Browns, as Cincinnati already has a head-to-head win over the Ravens.

On the spot: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo.  Seattle’s defense is better than some might realize, but Garoppolo’s two-interception performance simply wasn’t good enough to get the job done. He’ll have another tough job against an underrated Cincinnati defense this week.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow:  Burrow is dealing with a dislocated pinky finger on his throwing hand, but has said that the injury won’t affect him. While Joe Mixon’s running makes him a great closer, Burrow’s ability to direct a quick-strike offense is what can make Cincinnati truly dangerous.

The pick: Bengals 28 49ers 20

TV: CBS        Line: Tampa Bay -3.5

What you need to know:  Buffalo was humiliated by the Patriots in gale-force winds Monday night, with New England managing a 14-10 victory despite attempting just three passes in the game. Buffalo’s offense was able to get into the red zone more often than the Pats, but the Bills couldn’t execute and finish once they got there. Now the Bills risk falling two games behind and virtually ceding the division to New England unless they can find a way to upset the defending Super Bowl champions. Tom Brady’s Bucs, by contrast, keep rolling right along, and – with apologies to the Arizona Cardinals – again have the look of the best team in football. Tampa still has to try and run down both the Cardinals and Packers to get the NFC’s top seed, but if the Bucs win this game, a 14-3 record is very much within their grasp, and with it, very possibly the conference’s top seed and sole bye.

On the spot: Bills OC Brian Daboll.  Many Bills fans were wondering about Buffalo’s play selection Monday, specifically why Daboll wasn’t using designed runs with Josh Allen more often. The Bills are not a smash-mouth team, but Daboll needs to find ways to fully utilize his best players.

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin:  Antonio Brown’s suspension means that the Bucs will have to continue to thrive on offense without one of their most dynamic weapons, and that means more responsibility for Godwin, their most-targeted receiver this year.

The pick: Buccaneers 30 Bills 27

TV: NBC        Line: Green Bay -12.5

What you need to know:  It looks like Justin Fields will be back in for the Bears, but he has the unenviable task of trying to win a game at Lambeau Field. The Bears have lost six of seven after a 3-2 start, and their offense has scuffled badly in its last few games, averaging just 17 points per game. Fields’ return should help that, at least in theory, but he’s young enough that the time recuperating might result in some rust. Green Bay is more rested after their bye, and while the Packers have been middling as of late – just 2-2 after a seven-game winning streak – Aaron Rodgers is playing at a high level, and the defense is mostly doing its part to make Green Bay one of the best few teams in the NFL. While the Rams and Vikings were able to put up points on Joe Barry’s defense, Fields and Chicago might be an easier assignment.

On the spot: Bears QB Justin Fields. This is the kind of game, in the course of a mostly lost season, that could start to create some real confidence for Fields, provided he can somehow get a victory against the league’s fifth-ranked scoring defense.

Packers RB A.J. Dillon: Dillon has started to emerge as a late-season, cold-weather thumper and closer for the Packers. His numbers aren’t gaudy, but it’s clear that late in games, Green Bay trusts him to protect leads and finish off opponents.

The pick: Packers 26 Bears 17

TV: ESPN        Line: Arizona -2

What you need to know: Are the Rams going to beat a good team? Los Angeles’ latest effort to beat a contender went belly-up, as they lost to the Packers, committing three turnovers in the process. A blowout win over Jacksonville stopped the bleeding, but the Rams have just about locked themselves into a wild-card weekend game. At this point, the Rams need a win over Arizona if for no other reason than to convince themselves that they can beat quality competition. The Cardinals, meanwhile, keep on doing their thing and have a chance to put the NFC West in a vise grip with a win. There have been stumbles along the way, but by and large, the Cardinals have been a model of consistency. Arizona does need a win to keep pace in the NFC, as the Packers are looming just a game behind, have an extremely winnable matchup this week, and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cards.

On the spot: Rams HC Sean McVay.  McVay’s offense gets lots of credit, but his teams have developed a disturbing trend of swooning in the second half of seasons. He needs to find a way to snap Matthew Stafford in particular out of the doldrums.

Cardinals RB James Conner: Conner is averaging 112 yards from scrimmage over his last four games, and has six touchdowns in that time. His average yards per carry isn’t all that great, but he has helped Arizona weather injuries to its backfield.

The pick: Rams 28 Cardinals 24