NFL Week 16 betting guide

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Kansas City -10

Total: 49.5 points

This spread feels too large. The Chiefs are just 4-9-1 ATS this season and continously seem to find themselves in close games. Seattle is very much in the postseason mix and can bring a level of competitiveness that deserves taking them at such a large spread.

Betting: Seahawks +10

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Detroit -2.5

Total: 43 points

This is a no-brainer for us: back the Lions. Detroit has covered the spread in seven straight games, and as Jameson Williams gets more and more healthy, there's an added level of explosiveness to this offense that makes them hard to slow down. The Panthers are in the postseason mix simply because of the NFC South's incompetence, not because they've been a good team.

Betting: Lions -2.5

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Minnesota -4

Total: 48.5 points

We know the Vikings secondary has let up a good chunk of passing yards this season, but Daniel Jones has not been effective as a passer thanks to the lack of weapons at his disposal. Jones is over this 221.5 passing yards mark in just two of 14 games this season, a hit-rate of just 14%. We have to fade Jones here.

Betting: Daniel Jones under 221.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Tennessee -3

Total: 35.5 points

Houston has allowed the most touchdowns to running backs this season with 20 total, which is three more than the next closest team. Derrick Henry has 2+ touchdowns in four straight games against the Texans and will be leaned on once again to produce a big game for Tennessee.

Betting: Derrick Henry 2+ touchdowns (+330 FD)

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Cleveland -3

Total: 32 points

We like Cleveland to win this one. The defense has been coming on a bit stronger of late, and the Saints just do not move the needle for us in the slightest. We'll avoid the spread and just take the Browns moneyline at home.

Betting: Browns moneyline (-150 DK)

Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Baltimore -6.5

Total: 35 points

We tend to like looking towards young QBs rushing yards prop. There's some science here to expecting the slightest bit of pressure to knock the passer out of a rhythm and force them to just tuck it and run to gain some yards. In Desmond Ridder's first game as a starter, he finished with 38 yards on the ground. His over this weekend is set at a reasonable 23.5, and we like him to hit it again.

Betting: Desmond Ridder over 23.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)

Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: San Francisco -6.5

Total: 37.5 points

We're thinking San Francisco cruises in this one. They're 9-5 ATS, one of the best marks in the NFL, and Washington is off a relatively soft schedule of late. We don't like them to be prepared for this one. The Commanders have played the Giants twice, Falcons and Texans over the past four weeks. Give us the Niners at home.

Betting: 49ers -6.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Dallas -4.5

Total: 46.5 points

We like the Eagles to win here. Hurts or no Hurts, this is far a better team on both sides of the football. Trust that Philly dominates in the trenches and takes this game from Dallas in what would clinch home field advantage for the Eagles.

Betting: Eagles moneyline (+170 DK)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Pittsburgh -2

Total: 38 points

The Steelers secondary has allowed 51 passes of 20+ yards this season, fourth-most in the NFL. Davante Adams has been one of the most consistent deep threats in the league, and has exceeded his long reception line this week in six of his last seven games. Bank on a big play from Adams here on Saturday night.

Betting: Davante Adams over 24.5 longest reception (-120 DK)

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Miami -3.5

Total: 50 points

The Dolphins and Packers are tied for the second-most 40+ yard passes allowed this season, with 10. With no long completion market open yet, we turn to the standard yardage props, and we have more trust in Tua Tagovailoa delivering us a big outing. He is over this line in five of his last seven games and two straight in Miami.

Betting: Tua Tagovailoa over 271.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Denver -3

Total: 36.5 points

We just can't give up on the season-long dominance of Denver unders, despite them going over in two straight games. Sorry, but we're giving them one more chance to revert to the betting trend that has been here all year long. The Broncos are 11-3 to the under this season.

Betting: Under 36.5 points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Tampa Bay -7.5

Total: 40.5 points

We know that Arizona is without Kyler Murray, but this still feels like a large spread for the visiting Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has been the worst team ATS this year, and we'll continue fading them.

Betting: Cardinals +7.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Los Angeles -4.5

Total: 46 points

Jonathan Taylor is now out for the year, which opens the backfield up to Zack Moss and Deon Jackson. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns per game to RBs this season, and Zack Moss took an absurd eight carries inside the red-zone last week once Taylor went down. We like Moss to find the end zone.

Betting: Zack Moss TD (+105 DK)