NFL Week 17: Picks and preview

TV: FOX      Line: Buffalo -14

Atlanta still has a shot at a winning season, and even a playoff berth, though they have to do plenty of heavy lifting and get some help to achieve either outcome. Realistically, the Falcons are a far cry from a playoff-caliber team; they have just one win over a team with a winning record all season. Buffalo got its mojo back in a big way, becoming the first Bill Belichick opponent to go an entire game without punting. Josh Allen looked like an MVP-caliber player, and the Bills, while they won’t have home field in the AFC, look like they might still be the biggest challenger to the Chiefs.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Cordarrelle Patterson has filled the stat sheets this year. The versatile runner is one of just two players, along with Austin Ekeler, with 500+ rushing yards, 500+ receiving yards, 5+ rushing touchdowns, and 5+ receiving touchdowns in 2021.

-Stefon Diggs is one of only two Buffalo receivers with 1,000+ receiving yards in two consecutive seasons. The other? Stevie Johnson, of all people.

The pick: Bills 38 Falcons 20

TV: CBS      Line: Chicago -6

Whew. This is a tough one to get excited about, isn’t it? Unless Justin Fields’ ankle improves, it could be a showdown between Mike Glennon and Nick Foles at Soldier Field. Foles led the Bears to a thrilling win over Seattle last week, but the buzzards are starting to circle over Matt Nagy. Joe Judge’s job is secure, not that many Giants fans are happy about it. New York got pasted by Philadelphia last week, but evidently, Judge’s performance hasn’t angered owner John Mara enough that he’s ready to make a change. Both of these teams would be better served to lose this game; that said, Fields’ presence makes Chicago’s future look much brighter.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Evan Engram isn’t one of the league’s elite tight ends, but he is in some elite company; Engram is one of only three tight ends, along with Travis Kelce and George Kittle, with 40+ receptions each of the last five seasons.

-Foles has shined in three career starts against New York, throwing 8 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions, with a 102.7 passer rating in those games.

The pick: Bears 19 Giants 16

TV: CBS      Line: Kansas City -5

The Chiefs look once again like a juggernaut, though their defense has inarguably been the driving force behind their eight-game winning streak and return to form as the AFC’s bully. Patrick Mahomes diced up a desperate Pittsburgh team last week, but the Bengals are a much bigger challenge. Cincinnati might have the most impressive collection of skill talent in the AFC, and Joe Burrow is coming off a historic performance in the Bengals’ demolition of Baltimore. A win in this game would clinch the AFC North for Cincy for the first time since 2015. More than that, though, it would put the rest of the AFC on notice.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Mahomes needs three touchdown passes to tie Dan Marino for the fewest games to reach 150 career touchdown passes (62) in league history.

-Burrow threw for 525 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions against the Ravens. His yardage total was the fourth-highest single-game total in league history, and he is the only player in league history to throw for at least 525 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in a single game.

The pick: Chiefs 34 Bengals 30

TV: CBS      Line: Tennessee -3.5

Miami is now the only team in league history with a seven-game winning streak and a seven-game losing streak in the same season. The Dolphins’ schizophrenic tendencies are at least partly a function of the schedule. During this gaudy streak, Miami has beaten just one team with a winning record; the Ravens in Week 10. Tennessee found yet another way to win ugly against the 49ers last week, the victory marking the fifth time that the Titans have won despite being outgained by their opponent. One promising sign was Ryan Tannehill’s play; the quarterback posted his best game in a few weeks and did so against one of the league’s more talented defenses.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Jaylen Waddle has the most receiving yards by a rookie in Dolphins history, with 941 and counting, and with six more receptions, he’ll break Anquan Boldin’s record for the most by a rookie in league history (101 in 2003).

-A.J. Brown returned with a bang last week; he had a career-high 11 receptions, racked up 145 yards, and caught a touchdown. Brown has 5+ catches in 6 of his last 7 games.

The pick: Dolphins 21 Titans 17

TV: FOX      Line: Indianapolis -6.5

Las Vegas strengthened its playoff hopes with a win over Denver last week; the Raiders control their own destiny. If Vegas wins out, they’ll be in the postseason no matter what. Is that likely? Well, two more wins would give the Raiders a four-game winning streak. They haven’t won that many games in a row since 2016. It looked like the Colts wouldn’t have Carson Wentz for this game, as he was unvaccinated and tested positive for COVID-19, but then the NFL went and cut in half the return protocols for asymptomatic players, so Wentz has a chance to make it back in the lineup. If he can’t, Sam Ehlinger will try to get a win and punch Indy’s playoff ticket.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Josh Jacobs needs just 4 yards to join Marcus Allen as the only players in franchise history with 1,000+ yards from scrimmage in each of their first three seasons.

-Darius Leonard is the only player since 2000 with 15+ forced fumbles and 10+ interceptions in his first four seasons.

The pick: Colts 26 Raiders 24

TV: CBS      Line: New England -15

Jacksonville isn’t actually interesting on the field, of course. But the Jaguars are getting attention for their coaching search, which has seen them cast a very wide net, with previously successful head coaches and up-and-coming assistants alike all vying for the chance to replace Urban Meyer and oversee the development of Trevor Lawrence’s career. The Patriots’ limitations were on display against Buffalo. It’s looking more and more like their incredible win on the road against the Bills was a mirage brought on by horrible weather and incredible coaching. New England is a playoff-caliber team, but the Pats don’t have the offensive firepower to win a shootout.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Lawrence, despite his overall struggles this season, needs just 47 passing yards to set the mark for most ever by a Jaguars rookie. He’s also looking to post his fourth-straight game with 200+ passing yards.

-Mac Jones needs just two more touchdown passes to become the first Patriots rookie to throw for at least 20 in a season, and leads all rookie passers in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdown passes, and passer rating.

The pick: Patriots 34 Jaguars 21

TV: FOX      Line: Tampa Bay -12.5

Antonio Brown’s return boosted the Buccaneers’ offense, as the mercurial wide receiver caught 10 passes for 101 yards in his return to the lineup. When Brown has been in the lineup, he has been Tampa Bay’s most productive receiver, and he should be more than enough to help pace the team to a win in New York. The Jets are searching for positives anywhere they can find them, but Zach Wilson hasn’t provided many. He threw for 102 yards and a touchdown last week, which constituted a good performance, by his rookie-season standards. That should tell you all you need to know.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Rob Gronkowski has unsurprisingly tortured the Jets in his career, and the venue hasn’t mattered; he has posted 6 receiving touchdowns in 8 career road games against New York.

-Michael Carter has been a bright spot for New York. He’s the only rookie in the league with 500+ rushing yards and 300+ receiving yards this season.

The pick: Buccaneers 31 Jets 21

TV: FOX      Line: Philadelphia -3.5

Philadelphia avoided any sort of letdown against the Giants, pummeling New York with another ground assault, churning up 130 yards on 30 carries, and benefiting from sharp passing out of Jalen Hurts, who threw for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. Philly can clinch a playoff spot with a win and losses by Minnesota and New Orleans. The Football Team got humiliated by Dallas, and while they looked frisky for a while, it is clear that the team needs a new solution at quarterback. There are pieces to like in Washington, to be sure, but none of it matters if the most important one is up in the air.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Dallas Goedert has quietly put together a very solid season for Philly; despite the Eagles’ run-heavy approach, he is still fifth among tight ends with 759 receiving yards this year.

-Despite the Football Team’s revolving door at quarterback, Terry McLaurin has remained a threat. The third-year Ohio State product needs just 101 yards to notch his second-straight 1,000-yard season.

The pick: Eagles 27 Washington Football Team 20

TV: FOX      Line: Los Angeles -3.5

The Rams were able to grind out a win over Minnesota despite another shaky performance from Matthew Stafford. Stafford threw for just 197 yards and a touchdown while tossing 3 interceptions. His overall numbers look gaudy, but when the competition has stiffened, he’s played some of his worst football. Baltimore may have Lamar Jackson, but if they do, it will be at reduced capacity. Jackson was visibly limping at a practice earlier this week, but the good news for the Ravens is that Tyler Huntley is off the reserve/COVID-19 list, and will be ready to go if Jackson’s health is too shaky.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Sony Michel has come on of late; since Week 13, he leads all running backs in scrimmage yards with 458, and had a season-high 135 scrimmage yards last week.

-Mark Andrews’ 8 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown last week put him in rare company; along with Jimmy Graham, he’s the only tight end in league history with three straight games of 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown.

The pick: Rams 23 Ravens 20

TV: CBS      Line: Los Angeles -6.5

Denver’s loss to the Raiders in Week 16 functionally eliminated them from playoff contention. If you’d like to know how they can still make it, a nice summary would be, “win out, and get a ton of very specific help.” That means, of course, that they’ll be watching at home, and now speculation can turn to whether or not Aaron Rodgers wants to be their quarterback in 2022. The Chargers suffered the most humiliating defeat of Week 16, thudding to an ugly loss against the Texans that jeopardized their playoff hopes. Los Angeles needs to win out, and also needs the Dolphins and Ravens to stumble in order to get in. Can they handle their business in this one?

Look smart to your friends: 

-Courtland Sutton has been productive against Los Angeles; Sutton has 70+ receiving yards and a touchdown in two of his last three games against the Chargers.

-Austin Ekeler will return for the Chargers and is looking to extend a streak of six straight games with a touchdown, already the longest streak of his career.

The pick: Chargers 28 Broncos 24

TV: CBS      Line: San Francisco -12

Davis Mills is…kind of decent, actually? Mills engineered an upset win over Los Angeles last week by going 21-of-27 for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns, and with the performance became just the second rookie quarterback with 250+ pass yards, 2+ touchdowns, and a 130+ passer rating in multiple games. Jimmy Garoppolo has a torn UCL in his right thumb, which is also fractured. Despite that, he might still be able to start, but given how bad he looked against the Titans, Trey Lance seems like the better bet. Despite the loss, the 49ers can still secure a playoff berth with a win and a New Orleans loss.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Rex Burkhead has 65+ scrimmage yards in two of his last three games, and his 149 yards last week were a career-high. He also ran for 2 touchdowns in a game for the fourth time in his career.

-Who leads all rookies in scrimmage yards per game? It’s Elijah Mitchell, who just returned to practice this week, at 98.3.

The pick: 49ers 24 Texans 14

TV: FOX      Line: Dallas -6

The Cardinals are in the playoffs but reeling, having lost three straight games and having been punchless offensively in two of them. Arizona played tough against the Colts on the road last week, but a good showing against the Cowboys – even if it doesn’t end in a win – would be good for the Cardinals’ confidence. Dallas demolished Washington, and the Cowboys look like one of the NFL’s best teams. If the defense continues to show up to the degree that it has, the Cowboys are the rare group that has the firepower to hang with anyone, as well as the playmakers on defense to slow down elite offenses. It pains me to say this, America, but the Cowboys are back.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Kyler Murray needs just 216 passing yards to become the fourth quarterback ever (Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Baker Mayfield) with 3,500+ passing yards and 20+ touchdown passes in each of his first three seasons.

-Dak Prescott has been devastating at home this season. In seven home starts, Prescott has 20 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and just 2 interceptions, good for a 117.9 passer rating.

The pick: Cowboys 34 Cardinals 30

TV: FOX      Line: New Orleans -6.5

What is there to say about the Panthers anymore? Matt Rhule’s job status is tenuous, at best, and he resorted to comparing the Panthers’ current situation to Jay-Z’s rise to the top of the music industry. Sam Darnold is starting this game, something that would have been exciting to read early in the season, but now just seems sort of sad. The Saints have Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill available to them again, which means they should look like a competent offense again. The Saints have gone two full games without a touchdown, and if they had Hill against the Dolphins, might well have won the game. As it is, New Orleans’ playoff hopes are nearly shot.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Brian Burns is having his best season to date as a pro; the third-year product has 9 sacks and a career-high 13 tackles for loss.

-Cameron Jordan’s two sacks last week made him just the fourth player since 2000 (Jared Allen, Robert Mathis, and Julius Peppers) with 7+ sacks in 10 straight seasons.

The pick: Saints 20 Panthers 9

TV: FOX      Line: Seattle -7

The Lions continue to play hard, barely losing last week against the Falcons, but it remains to be seen whether or not Jared Goff can play in this game. Either way, Detroit would be better off losing out, as it would still give them a chance to “surpass” Jacksonville for the top overall pick, securing the leverage and possibilities that come with it. Seattle’s miserable season got worse last week, with the Seahawks suffering a snow-covered loss to the Bears on a do-or-die Chicago two-point conversion. Pete Carroll has invested heavily in his defense, but Seattle hasn’t gotten the return on that investment that they would like.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Amon-Ra St. Brown’s strong rookie season continues; he’s second among rookies with 74 receptions, and is just the second rookie ever ( Odell Beckham Jr.) with 8+ catches in four straight games.

-Russell Wilson needs just 2 touchdown passes to join Peyton Manning and Dan Marino as the only quarterbacks ever to post 20+ touchdown passes in each of their first 10 seasons.

The pick: Seahawks 21 Lions 17

TV: NBC      Line: Green Bay -6.5

Minnesota still has a shot at the playoffs, as they’re the first team on the outside looking in, but they need to win out and get some help if they want to make it. Kirk Cousins needs just 29 passing yards for his sixth-career 4,000-yard season, but ask Vikings fans if they’re confident in him playing well in this game and you’ll probably get lots of frowns. Aaron Rodgers continues his march towards back-to-back MVP awards. He carved up a good Browns defense last week, throwing for an efficient 202 yards and three scores. Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 10 and has 16 touchdowns in the meantime. The Packers can clinch the NFC’s top seed with a win and a Dallas loss.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Justin Jefferson now holds the record for most receiving yards in a player’s first two seasons, at 2,851 and counting, and needs 3 catches to become the fourth player under age 23 with 100+ receptions in a single season.

-Davante Adams is the third player ever (Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice) with 3+ career seasons of 100+ catches, 1,300+ receiving yards, and 10+ touchdowns.

The pick: Packers 31 Vikings 27

TV: ESPN      Line: Cleveland -3.5

Cleveland had a chance to get a win that would have been both crucial, and a big statement, but they made the mistake of putting the ball in Baker Mayfield’s hands far too often against Green Bay. As a result, the Browns need to win out and get help to make the playoffs, though the Steelers should present a welcome respite, as Pittsburgh has one of the worst run defenses in the league. Ben Roethlisberger all but admitted that this will be his final regular-season home game, which should ramp up the emotion in what amounts to a playoff eliminator at Heinz Field. Will it matter though, considering the Steelers haven’t scored a first-half touchdown in five straight games, the first time that has happened to the franchise since at least 1940?

Look smart to your friends: 

-Nick Chubb has been his productive self since returning. He’s looking for his third game in a row with 90+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

-Roethlisberger lives for prime-time football. He’s posted a passer rating of 110+ in three of his last four appearances on Monday Night Football.

The pick: Browns 24 Steelers 20