NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Giants Keep It Close, Broncos Dominate Titans

The Giants getting six points against their NFC East rival Commanders offers one of the best underdog bets of the opening weekend. These two teams have played each other close as of late. Both of their games in 2024 were decided by five points or less.

Washington’s running backs are either old or unproven, a factor that could cause them some problems, particularly early in the season. Meanwhile, New York has an elite defensive front that only got better with the addition of highly-touted rookie Abdul Carter. This could be a strength on weakness scenario in favor of the Giants. Washington wins but fails to cover.

Commanders win 26-23

Cardinals (-6.5) at Saints

Picking favorites to cover big spreads in Week 1 can be risky; however, in this scenario, I can’t see any reason not to back the Cardinals. Arizona is sneakily well-rounded team with star players on both offense and defense. There is also some degree of pressure on Kyler Murray and Jonathan Gannon to get off to a strong start as both men look to secure their long-term futures in Arizona.

The Saints, on the other hand, are in a really tough spot. Both of their quarterbacks looked awful in the preseason and their offense struggled to move the ball with either one of them. I don’t expect that to change as they take on Arizona’s underrated, yet quite solid defense. The Cardinals win and cover.

Cardinals win 28-17

49ers at Seahawks (+2)

San Francisco was dealt some potentially concerning news on Thursday after it was reported that Christian McCaffrey was added to the team’s injury report with a calf issue. Given McCaffrey’s injury history, there is absolutely a cause for concern among the Niners organization. The news strengthens my confidence in picking the Seahawks as a home dog.

Seattle is fully healthy with no noteworthy players on the injury report. Meanwhile, the 49ers will be without Brandon Aiyuk who was recently placed on the PUP list. Wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins remain questionable to play, creating a potential hole at this position if either or both are ruled out. I like Seattle to start the season off with an upset victory.

Seahawks win 27-24

Titans at Broncos (-8.5)

This is a nightmare Week 1 matchup for the Titans in Cam Ward’s first career start. The Denver Broncos have arguably the best defense in football heading into the season. In 2024, the Broncos led the NFL in sacks with a whopping total of 63, nine more than the next closest team. They also finished in the top 10 in total defense, scoring defense, and turnovers forced. There is no tougher matchup for a rookie quarterback than a road game against an elite defense.

To make matters even worse, No. 1 overall pick QBs have a horrible record in their first career start. Since 2003, they are 1-14-1 in their first game as a starter with the only win coming from Caleb Williams last season. 9 of the 16 QBs have thrown multiple interceptions during their first start, while the average margin of defeat in those games is 11.3 points.

Broncos win 31-17

Lions (+2) at Packers

Since Week 18 of the 2021 season, the Lions have a 6-1 record against the Packers, including three straight wins against them at Lambeau Field. Detroit has dominated this rivalry as of late, making it somewhat surprising that they would be the underdogs in this game.

Meanwhile, newly-acquired Micah Parsons has been limited in practice all week with a joint sprain in his back, leaving his status for Sunday’s contest unclear. Having a player like Parsons on the field would be a significant boost for Green Bay as they look to contain the high-powered Lions offense. Picking Detroit as an underdog in this spot feels like a no-brainer, especially with Parsons either being sidelined or not playing at 100 percent.

Lions win 30-27