NFL Week 1 touchdown props: Four pass catchers in good spots

This NFL season, you can rely on articles penned by yours truly to cover two main prop types. Long catch props are the first, which you can read here in case you missed it. The second is why you clicked this article: touchdowns.

Touchdown props have grown into one of the most popular bets sportsbooks take on Sundays, and it's a market that can be a roller coaster to bet on. Given the plus-money variety of these picks, we don't need to be getting 50% right to be profitable. Some weeks will be up, some will be down, but the goal here is obviously to make money.

This season, my betting approach for touchdowns will be as follows:

• .5u on players straight
• .25u on all parlayed
• .5u-.75u on round robins

If you're unfamiliar, round robins are multiple wagers in a parlay that combine every outcome in groups of either 2 or 3, so you would still win money if one leg fails to score.

Ok, we're on the same page with how I'm putting my personal bankroll on this; use this article however you see fit. 

A common theme from these four targets is what people are saying about them this summer. We can look to last year's production to an extent, but the confidence in these picks is built on comments revolving around them heading into the season. You'll see.

Brandon Aiyuk (+170 DK)

Last season, the Chicago Bears allowed the second-most touchdowns to the wide receiver position. The Bears have certainly made efforts to remedy this weakness, drafting defensive backs Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker in April, both of whom are expected to be Week One starters.

While the buzz around Chicago camp has been the play of these rookies and the overall improvement of this secondary, I take that with a grain of salt considering the relative level of mediocrity of the Bears receivers.

This Chicago secondary will be tested early to see if they're in better shape than 2021 with the San Francisco 49ers coming to town.

The top three receivers on the Niners to take advantage of this Bears vulnerability are Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, with all three of these gentlemen catching 5+ touchdowns last season.

As the section header gave away, I'm going to Aiyuk. There was a report from early August that Aiyuk and new starter Trey Lance have built quite the connection since training together in the offseason. 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik was quoted saying that Lance's rapport with Aiyuk is stronger than with Samuel or George Kittle.

Lance started in Week 17 last year, and while Aiyuk didn't find the end zone, he did lead the team in receiving, hauling in four balls for 94 yards on six targets. 

Aiyuk now has 10 touchdowns in two seasons and with Niners GM John Lynch saying that the receiver has made a giant leap, I like him to start the year strong.

Adam Trautman (+320 DK)

The Falcons allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends last year, and this Atlanta defense doesn't seem to have done enough to change that in 2022.

I am a sucker for betting on tight ends to score, the value on this position is always so much better than a team's running backs or receivers. These bets tend to be red zone dependent, and Adam Trautman was fourth on the Saints last year in red zone targets.

Trautman has been listed as the co-starting TE alongside Taysom Hill, and he led the group in snaps played last season.

There has been some solid buzz growing that Trautman is gearing up for a breakthrough season. Saints tight end coach Dan Roushar said that the third-year TE "looks like a different guy" and head coach Dennis Allen remarked on Trautman's ability to be a threat in the passing game.

Saints practice notes this summer have all expressed the same thing: Trautman is getting open, getting targeted, and making catches. 

It's Jameis Winston under center to start the year for New Orleans, and while it's a bit dated at this point, there was a 2017 PFF report breaking down how effective and how often Winston looks to his tight ends.
Trautman made it onto my radar because of the team he's playing, and he became a locked in pick because of the odds we can get him at and the buzz coming out of New Orleans.

Mecole Hardman (+235 DK)

The Chiefs open the season against a Cardinals defense that allowed the most touchdowns to WRs with 27 total during the 2021 regular season.

A look into the Arizona secondary suggests their generosity towards the receiver position will remain in 2022, as PFF graded their unit 27th in the league ahead of the season.

Enter the perfect team to capitalize on this vulnerability: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. The receiving room for the Chiefs has a bit of an unknown attached to it (as does our next target), which gives us the chance at some strong odds for a touchdown.

Tyreek Hill's 23 red zone targets (fifth-most in the NFL, most on the team) are gone. Travis Kelce was next on the team with 16 RZ looks in 2021, but it may surprise you to know that Mecole Hardman was right behind the star right end, targeted 15 times in the red zone last year.

In three years with Mahomes, Hardman has caught 12 touchdowns, and while that number has gone down each year, his receptions are going up.

Just a few weeks ago, Mahomes called for Hardman to be a big part of the offense this season. The star QB talked about how great new additions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been, but specifically mentioned that he sees Hardman taking on that Hill-role in this offense.

I like following the familiarity of Mahomes and Hardman, and given the soft target in Week 1, the value is too good to pass up.

Sammy Watkins (+280 DK)

When Aaron Rodgers talks, it's worth paying attention. An influx of targets are up for grabs in Green Bay after the Davante Adams trade. Adams was targeted 27 times in the red zone last year and ended the year with 169 targets, 123 receptions and 11 touchdowns.

One of the new additions to the Packers receiving room is Sammy Watkins. Just a few days ago, Rodgers was talking to the media about the receiver, saying that he has been a different player the past few weeks. This is not the first time Rodgers has praised Watkins this summer, and it appears he's gained the MVP quarterback's trust as the season is set to begin.

Minnesota allowed the sixth-most touchdowns to receivers last season, and similarly to Chicago have aimed to rebuild that issue through the draft, selecting safety Lewis Cine and corner Andrew Booth with their first two picks.

Rodgers has tossed 13 touchdowns in his past four meetings against Minnesota. He'll surely get his in this game, and with the compliments coming Watkins' way, I like the new Green Bay starting receiver to find the end zone in his Packers debut.

Closing thoughts

Candidly, I bet on these guys over the weekend. Their odds were better than they are now, I just didn't have time to give this article the attention it deserves. 

I was able to parlay these four players at +19797 on DraftKings. This combination is now +14335. Whether you bet them straight, parlay or round robin, roll with the guys you agree with, and good luck this football Sunday!

Looking for the best sportsbook offers? Check out our FREE bets page

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter, @griffybets.