NFL Week 4 long play props: Falcons, Lions, Steelers in good spots

Marcus Mariota is only over this mark once this season, but he has a 30+ yard completion in every game and has racked up ten completions of 20+ yards through three weeks.

It may surprise you to know that Mariota's aDOT is third-highest in the NFL, and he's tied for 12th in attempts that have traveled 20+ yards down the field. He's clearly looking to make plays down the field, and against this porous secondary, I like one of his top weapons to break the top off the defense for a cool gain of 37 or more.

The Browns have seen 10 passes of 20+ yards completed against them, and they've been particularly vulnerable to the big play, allowing three 40+ yard completions so far. The Browns DADOT of 9.2 is second-highest, tied with the next defense we'll be targeting in this piece. Teams are throwing on these corners, and it's working.

Pittsburgh had two 35+ yard gains through the air last week against Cleveland, the Jets had a 30-yarder and a 66 long, and Carolina connected on a pair of 50+ yard passes. London and Pitts have become a very solid duo and will get their chances to break free in the dome in Atlanta.

DJ Chark over 21.5 long reception (-115 DK)

DJ Chark is over this reception long in two of three games this season, and now with Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift out, I have to imagine he'll see even more targets than the 6.0/game he's seen up to this point.

We bet Chark last week to success, with the reason being he's the clear vertical threat in this offense. Chark's aDOT is 18.4, easily tops on the team, and Jared Goff hasn't been shy in throwing it deep, sixth in the NFL in pass attempts traveling 20+ yards in the air.

The Lions are facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed 12 catches of 20+ yards, tied for fourth-highest in the league. Seattle's DADOT of 9.2 is second-highest, meaning defenses have been taking deep shots against this defense. That aggressiveness would explain why the Seahawks have the highest opponent's yards per pass attempt mark through three weeks.

Vulnerable secondary matched up with an offense who likes to push the ball down the field sounds like a great combination to me.

George Pickens over 15.5 long reception (-105 DK)

This shocked me: Mitchell Trubisky is second in the NFL in attempts 20+ yards down the field, with 19. George Pickens has been on the other end of seven of those, the top vertical threat in this offense.

We bet Pickens last week on Thursday Night Football and he came through with a highlight reel 36-yard catch (against that Cleveland defense we're picking on again with Mariota).

Pickens comes into this one with an aDOT of 17.6, highest on the team. That exceeds the mark we need here, it seems the market still hasn't caught on to Pickens' role on this offense.

The Steelers see the Jets this week, a team that ranks inside the top-ten of two key metrics I beat like a drum: opponent's yards per pass attempt and DADOT.

Perhaps the Jets put Sauce Gardner, who has been their best corner, on Pickens, but the beauty of betting on young Pickens is the presence of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. They command attention, which opens up Pickens to 1 on 1 matchups, and likely not against the team's best corner. 

Pickens is over this 16.5 number in two straight games.

We're not done in the NFL, but these are three that look like good bets on Sunday. Stay tuned on Twitter and here on Yardbarker for more action for our NFL Sundays.