NFL Week 5 Teaser

The Packers aren't even averaging 20 points a game, and needed overtime to beat New England last week. But you know why Green Bay is 3-1 and tied for first in the NFC North? Its defense. The Packers have allowed the seventh-fewest points per game this season, and have allowed the third fewest passing yards. That's outstanding. 

And you know who has been really bad so far this season offensively? The New York Giants, the Packers' opponent for this week. The Giants might be 3-1, but it's not because of the offense. And to top it off, quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor are both questionable for this week's game in London after sustaining injuries in last week's win against the Bears. Regardless if either can or can't play, New York has some serious problems on offense.

The Giants haven't scored more than 21 points in a game this season, and are averaging just 19 points a game. Running back Saquon Barkley is certainly having a bounce-back year, but the Giants passing game has been bleak all season long. The Giants are averaging the second-fewest passing yards per game in the league, and unless they completely flip the script this week, don't expect that to change this week against a stout Packers defense.

And similar to the Packers defense, the Giants' defense has played lights out under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. New York hasn't allowed more than 23 points in a game, and have allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. On top of that, the Giants are coming off their best defensive performance of the season last week against the Bears after allowing just 12 points.

The under has hit at an alarming 58% this season, and with both teams 3-1 against the under so far this season, you'd be a fool not to bet the under in this one. Best of all, the teaser pushes the under total from 41 to 47. I'm not convinced either team scores 23 points in this one, which makes the under of 47 a whole lot easier. 

Now back to the Steelers. The Steelers are +14 this week against Buffalo, and with the teaser are (+20). Head coach Mike Tomlin finally decided to bench Mitchell Trubisky and start rookie Kenny Pickett this week. Pickett replaced Trubisky in the second half of last week's loss against the Jets, and make no mistake about it, it was 100% the right decision. It probably should have happened two weeks ago. And despite throwing three picks, Pickett was 10/13 for 120 yards and ran for two scores. More importantly, the Steelers moved the ball much better, and looked like an actual NFL offense with Pickett at QB. 

The last time the Steelers were 14-point underdogs was back in 1969. Crazy, I know. But that's how good of a franchise the Steelers have been over the years. And Tomlin and the Steelers rarely get beat by three scores, which is what the teaser pushes the spread to. 

Pittsburgh is 44-25-3 against the spread as an underdog, and 11-2 as an underdog of at least 3.5 points without Ben Roethlisberger at QB under Tomlin. And most impressive, the Steelers are 7-1 against the spread when getting six or more points without Roethlisberger at QB. What does that tell us? Simple. The Steelers rarely get smoked. And expect Pittsburgh to hang with the Bills this week.

Pittsburgh upset Buffalo last year in Week 1, and while that's super unlikely to happen on Sunday, expect the Steelers to lose this game by no more than 10. And again, with the teaser, you're getting 20 points on the spread. Josh Allen and the Bills looked like the best team in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season after blowing out the Rams and Titans in Weeks 1 and 2, but haven't since. They squeaked by Baltimore last week, and lost to Miami two weeks ago. Again, Buffalo should win this game, but Pittsburgh will be competitive. Take the Steelers +20 on the teaser without hesitation. 

The Teaser: Packers/Giants (< 41 points) to Packers/Giants (< 47 points) & Pittsburgh Steelers (+14) to (+20) (-103 odds via Barstool)

Bet $103 to win $100