NFL Week 7 Mock Contest: Starting from scratch

This is another week where we are losing a couple of games to bye weeks. Unfortunately, we are missing a number of top teams too with the Bill, Rams, Eagles, and yes, those Vikings on their byes this week. That is four teams who are going to be favored in a lot of games down the stretch.

Just a quick reminder, we are picking 5 games every week and trying to post the most winners by the end of the season.

Week 1 Record: 2-3
Week 2 Record: 3-2
Week 3 Record: 2-3
Week 4 Record: 4-1
Week 5 Record: 3-2
Week 6 Record: 1-4

Combined Record: 15-15

Week 6 in Review

Arizona -2.5 (Loss)
This one was of the worst outings by a team last week as the Cardinals scored only 9 points as the favorite. 

Minnesota -4 (Win)
The Vikings were solid. Thankfully that dead number was not an issue. 

Baltimore -5.5 (Loss)
Another dead number, but it never really came into play as the Giants won outright. 

San Francisco -5.5 (Loss)
Ditto for SF, who had one of the most surprising outcomes, losing at Atlanta 28-14,

Tampa Bay -8.5 (loss)
Tom Brady and the Bucs just lost outright to the combination of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky. Uggh.

Week 7 Picks (Finally)

New York Giants +3 (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

I am not saying the Giants are going to the Super Bowl, but at 5-1 SUATS they are definitely doing something right. They also have the perfect formula to win on the road with a reliable running game and not asking the QB to do too much. This line feels off on two fronts. One, I am not sure that these teams should be considered even based on play this season, and two, I don't see how the Jags are getting such a healthy bump for being at home.  

Baltimore Ravens -6 (vs Cleveland Browns)

Baltimore lost to the Giants last week. They outgained the G-Men though and that game definitely falls into the category of a game Baltimore should have won. They might have been looking past New York to this division matchup with the Browns, who were terrible last week against New England. It seems that QB Jacoby Brissett might have outlived his usefulness but they are still a few weeks away from getting Deshaun Watson into the fold. Usually, these AFC North games are 3 points spreads. In this case, doubling that is well justified.  

Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

It took a little while for the Bengals to get going at New Orleans last week. Joe Burrow eventually found a rhythm though and when he and Ja'Marr Chase are in sync, there is no duo better in the NFL. They are home for this game, getting an Atlanta team that is going to be overvalued off their big win against the 49ers. The Falcons have not lost a game against the spread this season but keeping up with the Bengals on the road is going to be a challenge.  

Las Vegas Raiders -7 (vs Houston Texans)
 
Borrowing from the Survivor article here as we see the Raiders as comfortable favorites even though both of these teams have just one win a piece. Las Vegas has not won the way they would have liked this season, but they have been in every game this season and can look at this game as a springboard to better results or the one that truly cost them their season. Vegas is better than Houston on offense and defense and should win this game by double-digits. Both teams were off last week too, so no advantage was gained there.  

Miami Dolphins -7 (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)
 
It looks like Tua is back for Miami this week. That should be good for Miami but even if they go in a different direction Miami is the team to back against Pittsburgh, who is still missing their top player (edge rusher DE). The QB situation is in flux for the Steelers with rookie Kenny Pickett suffering a concussion against Tampa last week. Pittsburgh got the upset win at home, which was a nice result, but back-to-back upsets are not in the cards.