PFF’s Packers X-Factor Faces Make-or-Break Season

The biggest disappointment for the Green Bay Packers last season was their inconsistent pass rush. The biggest surprise from this offseason was how they barely addressed that shortcoming.

In Pro Football Focus’ roster rankings, the defensive line was named the Packers’ biggest weakness and Lukas Van Ness was named the X-factor.

“Third-year man Lukas Van Ness needs to be at the forefront of the effort,” PFF wrote, noting his disappointing pass-rush grade for his first two seasons.

“He has accumulated just 42 pressures and a well-below-average 8.9 percent pass-rush win rate through his first two NFL seasons. If he doesn’t show signs of life this year, the Packers will likely be searching for other options up front next offseason.”

While the clichéd Year 2 jump is treated as gospel, Van Ness merely treaded water. Van Ness went from four sacks, eight tackles for losses and 10 quarterbacks in 17 games in 2023 – with most of that production coming during a promising finish to the season – to three sacks, six tackles for losses and six quarterback hits in 2024.

As part of the Aaron Rodgers trade, the Packers moved up from No. 15 to No. 13. As the 13th pick, Van Ness has seven career sacks. As the 15th pick, the Jets’ Will McDonald had 10.5 sacks last season.

There are reasons for Van Ness’ disappointing season, starting with a broken thumb that forced him to wear a cast for most of the season.

“Playing defensive line, it’s all with your hands, so when you’re kind of limited in using the thumb, a lot of our moves are originated from that,” Van Ness said at OTAs last week. “I don’t know if any of you guys have ever broken a thumb or a hand or anything, you kind of get a little bit of a mental block and it’s kind of taken me a little bit of time to gain some confidence again in utilizing my hand to its full extent.”

On the one hand, Van Ness is healthy and full-go in the offseason practices. On the other hand, he’s dealing with another coaching change, having gone from Iowa’s defense in 2022 to Joe Barry’s defense in 2023 to Jeff Hafley’s defense in 2024 to a new position coach, DeMarcus Covington, for 2025.

“It’s been a lot of adversity, coaching changes, broken thumb, and I think you just learn through those challenges,” he said. “Going into Year 3, having my first OTAs, a lot of learning, I’ve just been able to find some confidence in myself and my abilities and this is a mental game so you’ve got to keep that strong throughout the whole season.”

Van Ness didn’t start at Iowa and he hasn’t started a game in the NFL, either, but has been running with the ones opposite Rashan Gary through the offseason.

In the draft class, Van Ness was the fifth defensive player off the board. He ranks 17th in sacks – behind even teammate Karl Brooks – 14th in quarterback hits and 10th in tackles for losses.

Maybe the thumb was the reason why Van Ness failed to take that Year 2 jump. Maybe it was the coaching.

To that end, Covington was the most important addition to the defensive line and is far more likely to make an impact than either of the Day 3 rookies, Barryn Sorrell or Collin Oliver.

“I think Lukas is a guy that’s improving every year,” Covington said. “He’s a guy that’s coming in every single day working his butt off in the classroom and on the practice field. He’s making daily improvements just like all of our players are, just like all of them are. And for him, I think the sky’s the limit, and I’m looking forward to working with him as we continue to go through the spring, go through training camp and then really where it goes from there.”

The Packers need Van Ness to go far. As the team’s X-factor, he is the player who could have the untapped potential to give the pass rush some consistent bite.

“I think it comes down to consistency, being the same guy every single day, doing what’s asked of you with minimal mistakes,” Van Ness said. “I think that confidence comes from trust, and if you can get your teammates to trust you, you can get your coaches to trust you, and you have confidence in yourself then you’ll be able to go out there and play free.”